Some can claim victory in the latest political developments, but no one has reason to uncork the champagne just yet. Kurt Sansone reports.

For three whole months Parliament did not take a single vote,as the government avoided any potentially embarrassing situations.

Myriad debates on different Bills were launched but none concluded as the government tried to banish the spectre of surviving a no-confidence motion with the Speaker’s casting vote in January.

However, the gates have now been opened and May will see a flurry of important votes being taken in Parliament, some of which are potentially damaging forthe government.

A money Bill to implement the Budget measures will be taken on Wednesday, when a vote will also be taken on the special purpose vehicle for the financing of the new parliament building. A vote of no-confidence in Home Affairs Minister Carmelo Mifsud Bonnici is scheduled for May 30.

After the House Business Committee this week agreed on the timetable – which also included a debate on a motion calling for the resignation of Brussels permanent representative Richard Cachia Caruana – The Times takes a look at who could be uncorking the champagne soon.

Lawrence Gonzi

By slotting a potentially embarrassing vote of no-confidence in his Home Affairs Minister for the end of May, the Prime Minister has bought more time and that can only be good news for his Administration.

The end of May is a stone’s throw away from the parliamentary summer recess and this is what Dr Gonzi, pushed by an electorally unprepared Nationalist Party, may have been hoping to achieve all along.

By settling on the date for the no-confidence motion, the Prime Minister is also likely to have lowered the heat from his nemesis within the party – PN backbencher Franco Debono – and probably secured the passage of a crucial Budget vote.

Even if the vote of no-confidence in the Home Affairs Minister garners a majority and Dr Gonzi loses a key member of his Cabinet in this way, the Administration will still have some time to recover.

The significance of stretching the Administration’s lifespan into the summer was underscored by comments the PN’s election manager Austin Gatt made on TVM discussion show Dissett last week.

Dr Gatt said internal party research confirmed the results of recent polls showing the PN trailing well behind Labour.

With PN sources insisting that an October election is the most likely of options, Dr Gonzi will use the parliamentary summer recess to reach out to the electorate and try to regain lost ground.

The latest turn of events make Dr Gonzi a winner but don’t expect the champagne to be uncorked yet – this Administration still has a steep hill ahead of it.

Joseph Muscat

Although itching to run up the steps of Castille as Malta’s youngest ever Prime Minister, Joseph Muscat can still bide his time as his political opponents battle it out against each other.

In the short term, buying more time works in favour of the PN but it also gives the Labour Party a chance to oil its electoral machine to perfection.

The end-of-May no-confidence vote in the Home Affairs Minister is likely to garner a majority, giving Dr Muscat an important scalp to claim for his party’s parliamentary badgering of the government since he became leader in 2008.

More importantly, Dr Muscat can claim victory for determining the government’s agenda even if he leads a party that has been in Opposition for a quarter of a century, bar a 22-month interlude in 1996.

But the champagne will remain stashed away for now. In January the Opposition was banking on Dr Debono supporting their no-confidence motion in the government.

It did not happen after the PN backbencher abstained. Will Dr Debono do the same when the Home Affairs Minister’s no-confidence motion comes to the vote?

The answer will determine whether Dr Muscat uncorks the champagne in May.

Franco Debono

Securing a date for a parliamentary vote on the no-confidence motion for the Home Affairs Minister is a victory for the backbencher who has been a constant thorn in the Administration’s side. Dr Debono has long harped on about the importance of ministers being politically accountable for their actions.

He wants Dr Mifsud Bonnici to resign over “major failings” in how he administered the justice and home affairs portfolios.

And on May 30 the MP will finally get the chance to put his money where his mouth is.

The indication is that Dr Debono will support the Opposition’s motion but if past experience is anything to go by he may still back down at the last minute.

Last year the MP abstained on a vote of no-confidence motion in Transport Minister Austin Gatt over the botched bus reform despite having lambasted him for weeks on end.

He also abstained in January on a no-confidence motion in the government.

By abstaining, the MP will not be legally responsible for bringing down a government or a minister but will still have his name etched in political history – whether it is for the right or wrong reasons is another matter altogether.

His champagne has long been uncorked but the verdict is still out on whether it was opened prematurely.

Carmelo Mifsud Bonnici

He comes out as the loser in this saga. The minister has put up with months of constant criticism from one on his team over the handling of his ministerial brief.

In January, he lost the justice portfolio after a mini-reshuffle saw the Prime Minister acceding to Dr Debono’s request by splitting justice and home affairs.

It was a political blow but nothing near the predicament he now faces on May 30, when Parliament votes on a motion to remove him from office.

Dr Mifsud Bonnici will expect nothing short of the Prime Minister and Cabinet’s full backing – as had happened when the Transport Minister faced a vote of no-confidence last year – but his fate will rest with Dr Debono.

However, if Dr Mifsud Bonnici is voted out of office it is unlikely he will fade away into political oblivion – the Mifsud Bonnici family has deep roots in the PN and Cottonera.

A lengthy summer recess will give him time to try and repair the damage ahead of an impending election. ­He definitely has no reason to open the bubbly just yet.