Fully automated driverless cars could make up nearly 10 per cent of global vehicle sales, or about 12 million cars a year, by 2035, the Boston Consulting Group said.
BCG said 44 per cent of US drivers it surveyed would consider buying a fully autonomous vehicle within the next 10 years, and that 20 per cent would be willing to pay an extra $5,000 or more for the advanced technology required to operate such a vehicle.
“This will be as radical a change as the auto industry has seen in 100 years,” said Thomas Dauner, head of BCG’s global automotive practice.
Vehicle manufacturers, including General Motors Co., Volkswagen AG’s Audi and Daimler AG’s Mercedes-Benz, already are working on semi-automated systems that will still require some human involvement.
The first such systems, which will automatically control steering, braking and throttle in certain situations, are being phased in this year and next. They will appear initially in such premium cars as the 2016 Cadillac CT6 and the 2017 Audi A8.
But it will be a long, slow ramp-up from semi-automated systems to fully self-driving cars, according to the vehicle manufacturers, many of which expect that the first truly autonomous cars will not reach the market until 2025.
Enhanced safety is one of the key factors attracting consumers to automated cars, BCG said, but also the ability to perform tasks other than driving while in the car. Lower insurance and fuel costs also were cited.