For weeks on end, rumours have been mounting that the election could be held in November, or even early December, as the Labour Party continues to hold to an unassailable lead in the polls. Robert Abela’s decision to finally put an end to speculation and rule out an election for this year is most welcome.
Abela told journalists on Monday that the so-called “national interest” trumps any decision. He blamed the Nationalist opposition for fomenting uncertainty.
Several reports said the prime minister was being pushed to hold an early election, and the recent announcement of the metro plans added fuel to that. The reasons ranged from the almost foregone conclusion that the PL will win by a landslide, to the fact the pandemic has provided some reprieve to facilitate the holding of a general election.
Abela must also have been aware of the potential political backlash of holding an election way ahead of time simply to capitalise on the fact the opposition is still regrouping itself.
Malta’s economy is currently recovering from the devastating lockdowns imposed by the pandemic. Tourism is picking up and people are finally “getting on” with their lives.
It would have been unwise to disturb the pre-Christmas window that businesses can latch onto for an increase in sales, including the Black Friday sales, which have become a major one-off boost for commerce.
Local consumption is a major driver of the economy. Calling an election just as consumption is on the rise takes more than a little wind out of the sails of businesses struggling to stay afloat. An election campaign has almost always slowed down the economy as businesses adopt a “wait-and-see” approach.
Abela is certainly aware of the risks of running the full term of Labour’s legislature, which stretches to June 2022.
While hospitalisation rates remain low, COVID rates are rising across Europe which means the possibility of another partial lockdown cannot be dismissed. And this would be devastating.
He must also be aware of the threats to the local economy, including depressed investor confidence as a result of the FATF greylisting, rising global inflation, the end to pandemic support for businesses, and the possibility that Malta’s attractiveness will be further eroded by the impending rise in the minimum corporate tax rate.
Furthermore, in the face of rising debt and the absence of new tax measures, the government’s declared war on tax evasion – also essential to get off the grey list – will need to be stepped up to partially make up for revenue shortfalls. That’s not a comforting thought for a lot of businesses and self-employed people out there and is not without political implications.
While the prospect of new scandals will also be on Labour’s radar, the issue of corruption has not seemed to sway the electorate. A tanking economy is much more likely to.
We will probably never get to know whether Abela deliberately let the country guess over the election date. By refusing to rule it out before Monday, Abela strategically let the Nationalist opposition “waste” much of its ammunition, with certain PN electoral pledges pushed forward to try to win over votes.
Whether the electorate will forget about the pledges by the time the next election comes remains to be seen. On the other hand, a 2022 election will allow the PN, together with a leader just one year into the job, to be able to organise itself better.
Ultimately, there is still a valid argument to be made that Malta’s general elections should be taken out of the hands of the prime minister and be fixed by law, unless there are extraordinary circumstances. We cannot let the most important test of democracy be used as a partisan tool.