Prediction is a rather tricky task. Short of a crystal ball, the best bet is to surmise some of the elements of the broad background against which the big and small events of 2016 Malta may unfold.

It will be hot.

According to the UK Met Office, 2016 global average temperature is expected to be the highest recorded, 1.14˚C above pre-industrial temperatures.

Rising temperatures combined with natural variability lead to a greater chance of extreme weather events. These may impact food supplies for famine-hit populations in Africa and increase migratory pressures.

Besides weather, conflicts will stimulate migration – which is likely to remain one of the major international issues during 2016. Some 1.5 million migrants are expected to seek entry into Europe, a 30 per cent increase over 2015, with a considerable impact on the immigration agendas and policies of governments and mainstream political parties.

Although located at the centre of the world’s most dangerous border where some 23,000 people have died trying to make the crossing since 2000, very few migrants are expected to land in Malta by boat.

Last year only 104 people arrived by sea, compared with the 2,008 and 568 arrivals registered in 2013 and 2014 respectively.

However, the number of asylum seekers remained constant; 1,561 people sought asylum in Malta in 2015 (up to November), most of whom arrived by air.

The new mode of arrival brought other changes. Rather than Somalians and Eritreans, 2015’s largest groups were Libyan (822) and Syrian (367) – reflecting the strife in those countries.

According to the most recent available data (for 2014) the number of immigrants from EU countries is almost double that from third countries, 4,464 to 2,654. Malta also registered the highest rate of first-time residence permits among EU countries with Libyans, Russians and Serbians topping the list.

Meanwhile, it is envisaged that more than 1.8 million tourists will visit Malta in 2016, a decisive year for Air Malta. The time has come for the government to take decisions on the national airline, the Prime Minister said two weeks ago.

It’s not just people numbers that are on the rise. The number of cars on the road will continue to increase at almost four times the birth rate. Last September, 344,543 licensed vehicles were competing for space. The average 4,900 vehicles that are annually taken off the roads are being heavily compensated for by 21,000 newly licensed vehicles, leading to an expected vehicle population exceeding 360,000 by December.

Will Autobus de Leon succeed in achieving the elusive modal shift in land transport? Will 2016 include the “the opportune moment” when the mysterious public transport concession contract will be made public?

The increased car population will face some new bottlenecks. Early in the year, work on the busy Kappara junction is expected to start, not that far from the ominous Manwel Dimech Bridge.

Besides being the most densely populated European State at 1,325 people per square kilometre, Malta is also the most built-up country in the EU, with a third of the territory covered by buildings.

Environment and good governance will feature more prominently in the public debate.

The Mepa demerger and the new environment and public structures will be enacted. The first disputes, and maybe controversies, will follow the appointment of the new planning authority’s executive chairman and executive council and the environment authority’s board.

Apart from the usual controversies following the approval or rejection of controversial development permits, these new entities will have to face a scheme to regularise planning infringements and the “tweaking” of development boundaries.

Another hotly debated appointment will probably be the new chairman of Parliament’s Environment and Planning Committee to replace Labour-turned-Independent MP Marlene Farrugia.

The Café Premier bailout, the Australia Hall transfer, Gaffarena land deals, the Żonqor saga, the unpublished contracts with Shanghai Electric Power and Autobus de Leon, the publicly-funded bank guarantees to Electrogas and other stories have generated momentum in the governance debate.

This will be sustained by the PN’s discussion of its good governance proposals, as well as by the debate on the Commissioner for Standards in Public Life slated for this month’s parliamentary agenda.

The increased car population will face some new bottlenecks

The National Audit’s Office report over the Gaffarena Old Mint Street land deals, likely to be published during the first quarter, will be received against this background.

“I will respect the Prime Minister’s discretion,” parliamentary secretary Michael Falzon said, with reference to the Prime Minister’s responsibility to appoint and dismiss ministers and parliamentary secretaries.

The matter is further hampered by the €260,000 early retirement package granted to Dr Falzon by the Bank of Valletta.

Bioethical issues, in particular embryo freezing, are likely to be hotly debated too. The controversy developed after a kite-flying exercise in mid-August when the Labour Party Women’s Section called on the government to explore the possibility of allowing surrogacy and embryo freezing.

Last September, the Prime Minister declared he would forge ahead with plans to introduce embryo freezing. In the meantime, three Labour MPs publicly declared their disagreement – and there could be more which may mean the government might not have a majority on this issue.

The major 2016 geopolitical Maltese challenges will probably be linked to nearby Libya, in chaos since the 2011 revolution with armed factions battling for territory and control of its oil wealth. A lot depends on the implementation of the UN-mediated Skhirat agreement between Libya’s warring parties to establish and run a Government of National Accord.

The United Nations envoy to Libya is now working on arrangements to allow the unity government to safely set up shop in Tripoli.This is in the balance after he was yesterday forced to leave Libya.

One of the few points all agree upon is that the deal is fragile, its implementation is fraught with tension and that it may collapse at any moment.

International support for implementation is tricky given the wider Libyan sensitivities over external interference.

The unity deal obviously does not include Isis, which is gaining strength in Libya and has seized a pocket of territory around Sirte.

Will the recent defeats in Iraq and problems in Syria lead to a stronger Isis presence in Libya?

Last week’s capture of Ramadi in Iraq deprived these militants of their biggest prize of 2015. Should the agreement collapse and Libya slides back into chaos, there is no known Plan B.