As 2021 gave way to 2022, the world entered the third year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccinations have been touted as the way forward to seeing the world out of this pandemic. This was successful; widespread vaccination programmes reduced hospitalisations.

Nonetheless, the unequal global distribution of vaccines continues to be problematic. This is matched by the lacklustre take-up of vaccinations in some countries and the continuous stream of dubious sources on the efficacy of vaccines. Moreover, the emergence of new strains may mean that COVID-19 will remain an issue during the coming year.

Though essentially a public health emergency, this crisis has several political undertones. The debate over whether individual rights are being breached will rage on. Some countries have opted to introduce vaccine passports while others are rolling out mandatory vaccination programmes. This will raise questions about the rights of individuals versus the over-arching power of the state. Governments will increasingly be judged by how they handle the pandemic and respond to events as they unfold.

What remains staggering is that there is still a reluctance to accept the inevitability of a ‘new normal’.

COVID-19 has, of course, had wide-ranging effects which will be felt during the coming year. The pandemic has wreaked havoc on supply chains, which will have severe inflationary repercussions. The increase in energy prices is also felt acutely on a global level.

Though COVID-19 has changed our daily lives; it has not altered the political cycle. Some elections will be interesting to observe.

US President Joe Biden will face much-anticipated mid-term elections. They will be a test of sorts for the president, who is very unlike his predecessor but remains disappointing in many ways.

On the one hand, through Democrats in Congress and bipartisan efforts in the House of Representatives, he has managed to push through some important legislation, a COVID-19 stimulus package in March and an ambitious infrastructure plan. Nonetheless, the even-more ambitious ‘Build Back Better’ initiative faces serious opposition. His approval rating stands at 43 per cent.

France is set to go to the polls. The incumbent, Emmanuel Macron, remains the favourite to win. However, there may be some surprises. The candidate for Les Republicains, Valérie Pécresse, would offer a good challenge from the mainstream centre-right. Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour could also provide a further challenge from the right.

France also holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union. It will have the task to bring to a close the Conference on the Future of Europe. The conclusions and the response of the European institutions to this conference will be interesting to watch.

Malta is set to go to the polls. Despite political turmoil, the brazen criminal behaviour by some of its exponents and the succession of scandals, the Labour Party is set to win the forthcoming elections. It will do so with relative ease and, probably, with an increased majority of votes.

The Nationalist Party has had three leaders in the past five years; alas, internal divisions are the least of its worries. It remains somewhat uninspiring in its approach and repeatedly fails to present a coherent vision and set the agenda. This is a great pity; the stronger the support for a government, the greater the need to keep it in check. Without a strong opposition, the rot will set in further.

The West seems unable to assert itself or what it stands for- Andre Debattista

Meanwhile, this will be the first year of Germany’s incumbent administration led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz. After 16 years of Angela Merkel’s brand of managerial-style of leadership, Germany is being governed by a traffic-light coalition that combines the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Free Democrats.

Developments in France and Germany will have ripples across the European Union.

While Merkel was unquestionably the most dominant figure in the union for more than a decade, it remains to be seen who will be able to step into her role. France’s tenure of the rotating presidency and Macron’s support of European strategic autonomy will place him in an excellent position to occupy this unofficial role should he manage to win a second term at the Élysée.

There will be some cause for celebration in the UK. Though recently widowed, Queen Elizabeth II will celebrate her Platinum Jubilee in February. A special weekend celebration is planned in June with an extra bank holiday.

Widowed in April 2021, the queen seemed frail and tired in recent public appearances. At the age of 96, this will come as no surprise.

The Platinum Jubilee celebrations will allow the public to pay tribute to her remarkable years of service. She deserves every accolade. Nonetheless, they will also be tinged with a sense of sadness – a growing understanding that an era is about to end.

The Beijing Winter Olympics and the Qatar World Cup will be held, to the delight of sports lovers around the globe. Nonetheless, such events will also be riddled with political undertones. Both countries have horrendous human rights records.

Concerns over the treatment of migrant workers and the general human rights record of the regime will loom over the World Cup. Nonetheless, the two sporting events will allow the host countries – autocracies – to showcase their ability to host large-scale events smoothly and efficiently.

This will create a contrast with the West, committing one blunder after another. From handling some aspects of the pandemic to the chaos in Afghanistan, it seems unable to assert itself or what it stands for. There is a danger that this is interpreted as a sign of weakness. Some autocracies will take advantage of this.

This may be the year where its decline will be more marked and somewhat more irrevocable.

It will be a great loss.

André DeBattista, political scientist