43rd Industry Trends Survey

The FOI has published the 43rd edition of its half-yearly Industry Trends Survey (ITS), covering the first half of 2004. The findings of the survey edition show an improvement in the larger, mainly export-oriented firms and a deterioration in the larger, mainly locally-oriented ones.

The forecasts of the larger mainly export-oriented firms in respect of business optimism, export and local order books, production volumes, profitability, employment and capital expenditure on plant and machinery are all more positive or less negative than six months earlier.

The smaller export-oriented respondents register the same forecasts, except for profitability and business optimism where the trend is in the opposite direction.

A similar distinction between the larger and smaller firms can be seen among the mainly locally-oriented respondents, but this time it is the larger firms that are faring worse.

The forecasts of the smaller mainly locally oriented firms in respect of local order books, production volumes, profitability, employment and capital expenditure on plant and machinery and on land and buildings are all more positive or less negative than six months earlier.

The most notable exceptions to these trends are the negative findings in respect of export order books and business optimism.

The forecasts of the larger, mainly locally-oriented firms are practically all more negative or less positive than six months earlier. It is worth noting that the business optimism of the mainly locally-oriented sector for the first half of 2004 is the worst registered in this survey series since 1998.

Given that more than half of this negative trend is generated by the foodstuffs sector, this trend is clearly attributable to the lack of clarity that these firms had, and to a certain extent still have to date, on their operating conditions after May 1.

In addition to the manufacturing section of the ITS, the federation also regularly conducts a survey of its non-manufacturing membership. The non-manufacturing respondents, though operating in the same general environment as the manufacturers, have a slightly different outlook due to the nature of their services. This is evident throughout the survey findings.