57% favour EU membership

According to an opinion poll carried out on behalf of The Sunday Times between last Monday and Wednesday, 49.7 per cent of respondents would be voting for the Nationalist Party on Saturday; those who intended to vote Labour were 29.7 per cent, while 18.3 per cent would not say how they planned to vote.

One per cent of those surveyed said they would be voting for Alternattiva Demokratika, while 1.3 per cent said they would abstain.

The survey also found that 57 per cent of those interviewed were in favour of EU membership, 35.7 per cent said they were against, while 7.3 per cent did not answer the question.

Three hundred persons were interviewed by telephone for the survey, which was conducted by Professor Mario Vassallo.

The survey was carried out a few days after Labour leader Alfred Sant promised that, if returned to power, his party would give a two-month income tax holiday on the first Lm10,000 in gross income from employment, and credits to self-employed, and other forms of compensation, in a package estimated to cost the government Lm25 million and intended to stimulate the economy.

However, the vast majority of those surveyed - 78.7 per cent - said they will not be influenced by Dr Sant's promised tax holiday when voting on Saturday, while 17.7 per cent said they would be; 3.7 per cent did not answer the question.

An overwhelming 95.7 per cent of those surveyed said they saw a big difference between the two parties; only 1.3 per cent said this was not the case. Three per cent did not answer.

The main area of divergence between the two parties, as was to be expected, was what form of relationship Malta should have with the European Union. No fewer than 88 per cent of the respondents indicated this as the main difference. Social policy, with 17.3 per cent came a distant second, while environment, labour policy, education, foreign policy, roads, democracy, taxation/finance, promises, economic policy and tourism, were each indicated as areas of divergence by fewer than five per cent.

The findings of the last Sunday Times survey (published on March 23), which found that 88 per cent think the EU issue will dominate the campaign, were confirmed in last week's survey when 76 per cent stated that the main election issue should be the implementation of the referendum result, namely that 53.6 per cent of those who cast valid votes had opted for EU membership.

Again 70 per cent of those who replied found that Dr Sant's proposal, once he is returned to power, to hold a referendum to decide between 'partnership' and membership, was not a good idea. Thirty per cent said it was.

Participants in the survey were also asked to say which of the three political parties was the most persuasive. The Nationalist Party was the choice of 56.3 per cent, while the Malta Labour Party was the answer given by 32.3 per cent. Alternattiva was the choice of 4.3 per cent. However, seven per cent did not reply.

These replies were also reflected in another question regarding who, of Alfred Sant and Eddie Fenech Adami was the more credible, with the former obtaining 30.3 per cent and the latter 54.7 per cent, while 15 per cent rated them equally credible.

Participants in the survey were also asked what they thought of the political broadcasts on TV organised by the Broadcasting Authority before the election.

Asked to comment on the survey results, Professor Vassallo said: "Given the current state of the electorate, it is not surprising that a guerilla-like campaign to persuade people to vote for them is being conducted by candidates of all the parties.

"Every single vote is going to count in the coming election and the final results will depend to a large extent on the level of turnout. It is very likely that the turnout will be huge this time round, and the capillary action currently being undertaken will have an extensive effect on voting behaviour.

"Given the reticence of many not to disclose their intentions, and, as evident in the referendum, the fact that many Maltese actually vote along party lines even if this contradicts their stated thinking on specific issues, one needs to be very cautious before staking one's money on who the winner is going to be!"