The Auditor General will verify the forecasting model to be used by the Government in the next Budget, the Finance Minister announced.

Edward Scicluna said the move was intended to fulfil an EU requirement to have Government forecasts vetted by an independent authority.

“The fiscal council has not yet been set up so we will ask the National Audit Office, a respected and independent entity, to carry out this year’s analysis,” said Prof. Scicluna.

Revenue and GDP projections over the past years have tended to be over optimistic, he said, varying widely from forecasts by the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission.

Prof. Scicluna was speaking during a visit to the National Statistics Office yesterday where he also named the new board members of the Malta Statistics Authority, which oversees NSO operations.

Revenue and GDP projections have tended to be over optimistic

Albert Leone Ganado is the new chairman, replacing veteran Reno Camilleri, who was also present for the minister’s visit. Prof. Scicluna thanked Mr Camilleri for his long service.

The minister said he expected the new board to strengthen certain aspects of data collection, mentioning in particular GDP figures.

These were the single most important element on which the European Commission based its assessment on whether to open an excessive deficit procedure, Prof. Scicluna said. The deficit is expressed as a percentage of GDP.

He likened statistics to the gauges pilots have in their cockpits, adding statistics were the tools the Government had at its disposal before taking important decisions.