British Prime Minister David Cameron yesterday implored Scots not to vote for independence in next week’s referendum after an opinion poll showed a surge in support for a break from the United Kingdom.
Cameron pledged to do everything he could to keep the United Kingdom together and said he would head north to Scotland to join the fray.
“In the end, it is for the Scottish people to decide, but I want them to know that the rest of the United Kingdom – and I speak as prime minister – want them to stay.”
Cameron’s move made clear that the break-up of the United Kingdom – previously thought to be a pipedream – was now a distinct possibility. His spokesman said Scotland’s blue and white flag would be flown over Downing Street on Tuesday.
Nationalist leader Alex Salmond said in Edinburgh that the TNS poll showed the campaign opposing independence had “fallen apart at the seams”.
This is the day that the no campaign finally fell apart at the seams
Britain’s main political parties also scrambled to shore up the 307-year union by pledging more autonomy to Scotland, with former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, a Scot, making an impassioned appeal to Labour Party supporters in central Scotland in support of staying together.
The latest opinion poll showed the referendum scheduled for September 18 was now “too close to call”, TNS head Tom Costley said.
The number of people saying they would vote “No” to independence dropped to 39 per cent, down from 45 per cent a month ago. “Yes” support was slightly behind at 38 per cent but had made a dramatic surge from 32 per cent a month ago. It followed a YouGov poll in the Sunday Times that proclaimed the pro-independence camp slightly ahead for the first time this year, prompting a fall in the pound and British shares that reflected concerns that an independent Scotland would struggle economically.
In a renewed blow to nationalist hopes of keeping the pound sterling, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said a currency union between an independent Scotland and the remainder of the United Kingdom would be incompatible with sovereignty.
A split would also have huge ramifications beyond Scotland’s borders, given Britain’s current status as an economic, diplomatic and military power, a leading NATO and EU country, and a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council.
Salmond, who heads the Scottish National Party, the ruling party in Scotland, exulted in the poll news yesterday. “I think this is a very significant day in the referendum campaign. This is the day that the no campaign finally fell apart at the seams,” he told reporters. He was speaking at an event with European supporters of Scottish independence, who posed on the steps of the St Giles Church on Edinburgh’s historic Royal Mile holding signs saying “yes” in a variety of European languages.
Whether an independent Scotland would be allowed to remain a member of the European Union, as the independence movement wishes, has been a huge bone of contention.
Several prominent European politicians have said it would be impossible and Spain, which fears Scottish independence would give a boost to separatist movements in the Basque Country and Catalonia, is deeply opposed.
But a former president of the European parliament, Ireland’s Pat Cox, said in the Scotsman newspaper that the EU was unlikely to send Scotland to the back of the queue for membership – not least because that would cause “chaos” in the fisheries sector if Scotland, with rich maritime resources, was expelled.
“It has always respected the expressed democratic will of the peoples involved,” Cox said.
Impassioned debate
The independence question has provoked impassioned debate in Scotland from boardrooms to street campaigns. Proponents of independence say it is time for Scotland to run its own affairs and choose its own leaders rather than be ruled from London.
An independent Scotland can use its North Sea oil revenue to create a prosperous and fairer society, they say. Advocates of staying in the union say the country is stronger as part of a bigger entity and that going it alone would put it in a precarious economic position. Independence supporter Andrew Anderson, a 52-year-old human rights worker at Tuesday’s rally, said he was optimistic of victory.
“I think the polls are behind the movement on the ground and are just catching up. There’s definitely a mood swing,” he said. “We don’t get the government we vote for and it’s time we did. Small countries can be successful, create jobs and have a good economy. Look at the Danes and the Finns and all those places doing well.”