Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi is still eyeing an election early in 2013, according to PN sources, despite the persistent internal strife caused by rebel MP Franco Debono.
The funeral brought back the spectre of Mintoff
September marks the beginning of the last six months of this legislature, prompting fresh speculation about when the election will be held.
On Sunday, Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi seemed to fuel speculation when he said it was “time for the electorate to reflect on its future, since important decisions are drawing ever closer”.
“Realistically, there are only two options left: November or March,” one Nationalist MP told The Times, adding that October was too early to go to the polls and the holiday season between December and January would be avoided not to disrupt the festive season.
The Government can complete a full-term unless it loses the Budget vote or if it loses a vote of confidence in Parliament, which reconvenes on October 1.
However, failure to sanction the Budget in Parliament would still give the government a three-month period (after the anticipated vote in November) to call the election.
The Opposition, Dr Debono or independent MP Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando have so far not given an indication that they would file a no-confidence motion in the government.
An election as early as November could help the PN capitalise on the glowing tributes to former Prime Minister Dom Mintoff and lure back moderate Nationalist voters.
“The funeral brought back the spectre of Mintoff and disgruntled Nationalists who were previously considering voting Labour are now thinking twice,” another Nationalist MP told The Times, quoting anecdotal evidence from his home visits.
“But that is only one consideration from many and it is not the most important,” he added.
If an election were to be called in November, it could hardly be labelled as “early”, given that the Nationalists have often scheduled elections months before the five-year term is up.
However, it would force the Government to rip up its plans to present a Budget in November, which Dr Gonzi had already said he planned to do.
“I assume the government will want to present its Budget,” said another MP, arguing that the Government was proud of its economic achievements and would like to present an account of the country’s finances before proceeding to an election.
When the Nationalist Party opted to go to the polls before presenting a Budget in 1996, it was later accused of having tried to mask a huge deficit.
“People will be very suspicious if a Budget is not presented. Plus, the Prime Minister has a responsibility to govern until the end of his mandate and provide an account of the government’s work,” the MP added.
A source close to the Prime Minister said Dr Gonzi had already made his intentions amply clear.
“He has said this is not the right time for an election,” the source said, adding that surviving the whole term would undermine the claim that he was not in control of the Government.
The Prime Minister would not want to risk trusting the economy to Labour at this delicate stage, especially when the rewards of the Government’s economic achievements would probably be reaped early next year, the source said.
Another reason to buy time is that the PN is still heavily trailing Labour at the polls, even though the proportion of undecided voters seems to be higher than ever, due to an increasing general sense of mistrust in politicians.
Though the PN faces an uphill struggle to reverse the ever-widening gap in the polls, a protracted campaign would give it chance to rebuild burned bridges and bring lost sheep back into the fold.
But another Nationalist MP who spoke to The Times disagrees.
“We have been in campaign mode since January. I cannot see us going beyond this year, especially with the loose cannon we have in Parliament.”
Like most others, he is coordinating his own campaign with November in mind – just in case.