The Muslim population in North Africa was always going to be fertile ground for the so-called Islamic State (or Daesh) as it sought to establish an alternative caliphate as a back-up to Iraq and Syria.

Tunisia, hailed as the democratic success story from the carnage of the ‘Arab Spring’, nonetheless became the source of the single largest group of foreign fighters to join Daesh in Iraq, Syria and, later, in Libya.

Libyans formed an important contingent within Daesh in Syria after defecting from Al Qaeda. Exploiting the chaos that followed Gaddafi’s overthrow, many of those returned to Libya as part of a plan by Daesh to establish a North African “caliphate”.

Daesh’s North African contingents have been linked to several attacks on Westerners, including the mass shooting at a beach resort in Tunisia in 2015 in which 38 people died. And, just recently, the atrocity in Barcelona and the coastal resort of Cambrils, which was carried out by Moroccans.

Individuals with North African origins now pose the greatest threat in Europe.

Even if defeated on the battlefield in Iraq and Syria as seems likely, Daesh will attempt to reinvent itself and to re-group. Some Daesh fighters are already trying to exploit the lawless space in Libya. Others are looking for new bases in south-east Asia.

Recent attacks suggest that North African extremists are being recruited for action in Europe. Moroccans, Libyans and Algerians crop up frequently in intelligence watch lists of suspects. Several security service experts are rightly nervous about terrorist infiltration of the migrant exodus to Europe.

The recent bloody attacks in Barcelona (and in Turku in Finland) have shown that Islamist terrorism is likely to engage the West for another 20 or 30 years. It is, as the former head of MI5 in the United Kingdom has said, a generational threat.

The concern for Malta is that hundreds of retreating Daesh fighters from Iraq and Syria are regrouping in Libya, a lawless failed State. The jihadist group is now looking to North Africa to rebuild a “caliphate” that is shrinking in Syria and Iraq.

We should identify the high-value targets in Malta, and then do more to protect them

Daesh was driven from its Libyan stronghold of Sirte in December last year and the remaining fighters have retreated to desert camps in the south. There are now believed to be almost 1,000 Daesh members across the country. The majority are gathering south of Sirte, which was the de facto capital of their Mediterranean stronghold until nine months ago, having at its peak about 6,000 fighters, including women.

Daesh’s presence in Libya is a matter of considerable concern to the West. But it is of course of especial worry to Malta as Europe’s southern frontline State.  Although Malta has been spared acts of terrorism, it would be foolhardy to assume that we are immune. The mass shooting at the beach resort of Sousse in Tunisia two years ago, aimed solely at slaughtering European tourists, could easily happen here.

It is for the Security Services and the Malta Police Force to track terror financing and monitor suspects and new arrivals to Malta from North Africa. Absolute vigilance at our sea and air borders to guard against any attempted infiltration by terrorists under guise of migrants, refugees or visitors from Libya, North Africa or the Middle East will be key. In the light of recent truck- and van-driven attacks in Barcelona, Berlin, Nice and London, they must also recommend how to plug weak spots in our national infrastructure.

The celebration of Valletta, City of European Culture, 2018 could be an attractive target for those who hate fanatically everything about Western culture. The types of attack which were perpetrated in Nice, Berlin, London and Barcelona, using low-tech weapons such as vans or trucks or knife attacks, could easily be repeated in Malta. It is not being alarmist to say we need to be prepared.

The knife-wielding van-killers of Daesh are desperate men who believe that they have found the soft underbelly of the West. The war against them must be waged through good intelligence. Dangers cannot be abolished. But mitigation is both possible and affordable. Mitigation is what we can aim for and realistically succeed at.

Society has to be vigilant, from front-desk employees at car rental companies to the immigration police at frontier control. Should we introduce special restrictions or checks on van hire or any high-powered vehicle for that matter? Certainly, drivers wanting to rent vehicles should face tougher checks than those applied today. More personal details could be required by rental companies and the information that is already collected (names, addresses, financial details) could be checked against criminal watch lists held by the police.

When it comes to taking effective mitigation measures against trucks or vans mowing down people in the street, the first point to note is that it is only famous places that offer the jihadist their infamous “victories”. Terrorists know that to mow down a midday crowd outside, say, Downing Street guarantees worldwide coverage, whereas running down a bus queue in an unfamiliar northern town in England will be less of a media sensation.

Jihadists are doing this to shock. High-shock value targets are at a premium for terrorists. We should, first, identify the high-value targets in Malta, and then do more to protect them. We all know our famous places in Malta. They are those places where tourists gather in numbers: Mdina, Valletta, St Julian’s, Sliema promenade, Paceville, Buġibba and any of our major exposed beach resorts, such as Mellieħa Bay.

But we can take simple mitigation measures to protect these vulnerable areas. With no more than the tasteful use of old-style iron bollards, plus a few gates with keys for emergency services, it will prove perfectly possible to terror-proof such areas. We can, and must, avoid the use of ugly concrete blocks. Except in emergencies, wrought iron, cast iron, or even wood (for example, concrete blocks encased in wooden seating or wooden plant holders) could be used.

In Italy, concrete barriers are being installed to stop terrorist trucks attacking its most popular landmarks. Barriers have appeared in central Milan, and busy tourist streets in Palermo are also due to receive new barriers. Large concrete flower pots will be guarding the entrance to Via del Corso, Rome’s main shopping street, and Via dei Fiori Imperiale.

It would be foolhardy to think that what has happened elsewhere in Europe cannot happen here. Malta’s geo-strategic position and its proximity to North Africa, within 200 or 300 miles of Libya and Tunisia and on the main route through the central Mediterranean, make us especially vulnerable.

We must plan sensibly for the worst by exerting extra vigilance and taking suitable mitigation measures now.