Barack Obama’s prospects of re-election have always depended on the state of the US economy, the Republican choice of a presidential candidate, his ability to move towards the political centre after his mid-term defeat 15 months ago and his handling of an international crisis should one suddenly erupt.
The longer the race for a Republican presidential candidate, the better the chances of Barack Obama’s re-election- Anthony Manduca
Obama was severely punished by voters in the November 2010 congressional elections, thus denting, his chances of being re-elected President in November this year. In those mid-term elections the electorate handed control of the House of Representatives back to the Republican Party, severely reduced the Democratic majority in the Senate and elected a number of new Republican governors.
Opinion polls showed that the economy was the number one issue in the mid-term elections, although opposition to Obama’s health care legislation was also a factor, and that significantly Democrats lost ground among women, independent and Catholic voters, most of who voted for Obama in the 2008 election.
Until a few months ago, although there were some positive economic indicators in the US, the jobless rate remained stubbornly high at over nine per cent, which was very bad news for the Obama administration.
But the latest jobless figures for January show the rate has gone down to 8.3 per cent, nearly a three-year low, providing some optimism for Obama’s re-election bid.
January was the fifth straight month the rate has fallen. To Obama’s credit, he has talked about nothing but job creation for the past year-and-a-half, and he finally has some results to show voters.
Besides the encouraging job figures Obama also convinced Republicans in Congress to agree to a two-month extension of payroll tax cuts, which benefits 160 million Americans and delivers a tax cut of about $20 (€15) a week for a typical worker making $50,000 (€37,000) a year.
People on a salary of $100,000 (€75,000) will get a $2,000 (€1,485) tax cut. These cuts in social security contributions were a key feature of Obama’s jobs programme announc-ed in September, and were initially opposed by the Republicans – the cuts of nearly $100bn (€74bn) are added to the deficit – and constitute a strategic retreat for the Republican Party and a victory for Obama.
Meanwhile the Republicans are still undecided about who their presidential candidate will be in November. The longer the race and the more ideological the battle becomes, the better the chances of Obama’s re-election. Although Mitt Romney, a moderate, was leading in the race until recently, his bid is being seriously challenged by Rick Santorum, a social Conservative and former senator from Pennsylvania who unexpectedly won the three contests for the Republican nomination in Minnesota, Missouri and Colorado on February 7.
Santorum, a staunch Catholic, has become the standard bearer of the Republicans’ Conservative wing in this election, replacing Newt Gingrich, who was previously given a boost when he won the South Carolina primary on January 21.
In fact, many Democrats hope Santorum will beat Romney for the Republican nomination – and then be defeated by Obama in November due to his rigidly conservative views.
Tuesday’s primaries in Michigan and Arizona will be crucial for Romney and Santorum. Should Romney fail to win Michigan – his home state – he will be in serious trouble.
Then on March 6, ten states vote on what is known as ‘Super Tuesday’, and a clearer picture of who will be the eventual nominee should emerge. But should the contest go on until the Republican Convention in August, especially if it is an ideological battle between a moderate Romney and a Conservative Santorum, that can only benefit Obama.
Although Santorum has some admirable qualities – he is strongly against abortion, for example – I believe he is unable to defeat Obama simply because most of his policies – both domestic and foreign – are too right-wing.
Santorum might appeal to social conservatives, but I doubt he’ll appeal to other voters in a presidential race. Elections are won in the centre of the political spectrum, and Romney has a better chance of winning over independent and moderate voters in November even though he has changed his views to make him more appealing to his party’s Conservative base.
While the state of the economy and the choice of the Republican candidate will be crucial issues for Obama as he faces re-election later on this year, how the President positions himself within the political spectrum will also be important. If Santorum is his opponent, Obama will obviously portray himself as a centrist candidate who can unite the country. His opponents will no doubt portray Obama as a left-wing liberal opposed to individual liberty.
It will be interesting to see how much damage Obama has caused with his recent quarrel with the Church over his insistence that religiously affiliated institutions must provide full contraception insurance coverage for female employees. Obama was wrong to pick a fight with the Church over this issue. Although it probably won’t cost him the election it could cost him votes.
An international crisis could also derail Obama’s re-election chances.
A crisis waiting to happen is Iran. If no progress be made to convince Iran to co-operate over its nuclear programme, we could see an Israeli attack, with devastating global implications. Iran could also cause trouble if it feels its ally in Damascus is about to be toppled. The price of oil is already rising due to the situation in Iran, but any armed conflict would cause it to rocket. Obama must be keeping his fingers crossed.