The European People’s Party is marginally ahead of the Socialists, according to the latest opinion polls carried out in the run-up to the MEP elections on May 24.

The two groups are expected to remain neck and neck right to the end.

According to data released by the European Parliament, based on the most recent public opinion polls, the EPP – represented in Malta by the Nationalist Party – is expected to retain its position as the largest political group in the European chamber.

However, with its current poll rating of 29.1 per cent, the 265 seats it holds at the moment would likely fall to 219.

The Socialist group – represented by the Labour Party in Malta – was faring better than the EPP until a month ago. However, the polls published earlier this week indicated a sudden turnaround with the Socialists losing almost three percentage points, shifting to second place at 27.1 per cent. This means the Socialists would win 204 seats; still a lot more than the 184 seats of 2009.

The polls, however, show that the equilibrium within the EP, which was always controlled by the two largest political forces, might be changing as smaller parties, such as the extremists and Eurosceptics, have been gaining ground. The EP has been increasing its powers in the EU in recent years and, by virtue of the Lisbon Treaty, it will now be in a position to determine who will be the next European Commission president.

According to the treaty, the new Commission head will have to reflect the composition of the new Parliament and will need a majority of the 751 seats in the EP.

The EPP is nominating former Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean Claude Juncker for this position while the Socialists want it to be EP president Martin Schultz.

	EPP	S&D	Alde	Greens/EFA	GFE/NGL	EFD
Current seats	265	184	84	55	54	39
February 2014 projection	217	221	57	42	39	53
March 2014 projection	219	204	61	45	42	51