Poland has without doubt been one of the European Union’s success stories ever since the enlargement of the bloc in 2004.
It withstood the eurozone crisis well and its economy grew by 20 per cent over the past seven years. Under the centre-right pro-European Civic Platform party Poland become a very well respected player both within the EU and on the international stage.
The victory, therefore, of the populist, Nationalist, right-wing, conservative and somewhat Eurosceptic Law and Justice party led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, might have come as a surprise to some observers and caused some concern in the corridors of Brussels.
Despite the fact that the economy was well managed by the outgoing Civic Platform government, many Poles, especially those who live in rural areas, felt they did not benefit from the country’s economic prosperity. These voters were attracted by Law and Justice’s promise of higher childcare benefits and tax breaks for the less well-off. The outgoing government, furthermore, was tainted somewhat by corruption allegations, and many voters decided it was time for a change.
Another major factor that contributed to Law and Justice’s victory was the huge influence of the Catholic Church, which had warned about the country’s creeping secularism. Many Catholics in Poland blame the EU for this trend, even though Brussels has no say in matters such as gay rights, IVF or abortion. The migrant crisis in Europe also must have turned many voters to vote for parties of the right as many Poles regard any influx of Muslim refugees as a threat to the country’s Catholic identity.
This election was historic as it was the first time in Poland’s post-Communist history that a single party won an overall parliamentary majority. It is also the first time since 1989 that there will be no left-wing party in Parliament, and Poland now becomes the only European country not to have a social democratic party in its legislature. Significantly, 63 per cent of young Poles – youth unemployment is high in Poland – voted for right-wing parties.
The breakdown of the electoral results is as follows: Law and Justice got 37.6 per cent of the vote and 235 seats in the 460-seat Parliament; Civic Platform came second with 24.09 per cent and 138 seats; Kukiz’15, a new right-wing party led by rock star Pawel Kukiz, got 8.81 per cent of the vote and 42 seats; Modern Poland, a new pro-European centrist liberal party, received 7.6 per cent of the vote and 28 seats; and the Polish People’s Party, an agrarian Christian Democratic party that was Civic Platform’s coalition partner in the outgoing government, got 5.1 per cent of the vote and 16 seats.
Poland’s electoral system has a parliamentary representation threshold of five per cent for single parties and an eight per cent threshold for coalitions, which is why the United Left, an alliance of centre-left social democratic and socialist parties, which got 7.55 per cent of the vote, was given no seats in the new Parliament, leaving the country with no left-wing representation.
The new government will most likely adopt a more hardline foreign policy, especially in its dealings with Russia
Law and Justice managed to win because it did well among rural, Catholic and young voters and because it offered simple, specific policies to the many voters who felt left out of the country’s economic success story.
One criticism, of course, is that it promised everything to everybody, and it is therefore doubtful whether it will be able to keep its pre-election pledges without massively overspending and clashing with the EU.
Cleverly, Law and Justice put forward a moderate, Beata Szydlo, as the party’s candidate for Prime Minister, rather than the divisive Mr Kaczynski – who has lost every election since 2007 – although only time will tell who will emerge as Poland’s real leader.
Such a tactic also worked last May when Mr Kaczynski had nominated the moderate and unknown MEP Andrzej Duda as his party’s candidate for President. Mr Duda’s victory was a clear sign that Poland had turned to the right and wanted a change in government.
What can we expect from the new government?
Law and Justice will most likely adopt a more hardline foreign policy, especially in its dealings with Russia, just like it did when it was in government between 2005 and 2007. Mr Kaczynski is the identical twin of Poland’s former President Lech Kaczynski, who died in a plane crash in Smolensk, western Russia, in 2010, and has always believed that the Russians were involved in the tragedy, although this has never been proven.
We can also expect the new government to bolster its support for Nato and the US and to be cool on further EU integration.
It might also change the outgoing government’s policy of close relations with Germany, which in my opinion would be a big mistake because Berlin plays a pivotal role within the EU, and especially in central Europe and in dealing with Moscow.
The new Polish government will be no doubt very conservative on social issues, while on the economy, Law and Justice’s policies tend to favour State intervention and high government spending.
Mr Kaczynski also wants to impose new taxes on banks and supermarket chains. We can expect clashes with the European Commission and the major Western member States on the migration crisis as Poland increasingly allies itself with Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban on this issue.
We can also expect the new government to be difficult on climate change at the Paris summit in December, as Poland relies heavily on coal for its power plants.
The new Polish government, of course, must be given a chance to govern and its mandate must be respected – even though it got only 37 per cent of the vote in an election that witnessed a turnout of only 51.6 per cent.
Rightly so, Mr Kaczynski chose a moderate to be the country’s new Prime Minister. It is important that Ms Szydlo, while bringing about the change the electorate voted for, does not jeopardise the country’s great economic achievements and well-respected reputation in Europe.