The undecided voter – where is he or she going?

Soon after the last election I asked whether anyone still remembered the floater, who some said, decided the election. In Malta it appears that the undecided voters always play a major role in this respect.

It would appear that a large number of these undecided voters are or were supporters of the PN

This election will probably be no different due to the demographic nature of the voting public. Hard core Labour and Nationalist supporters do not waver and these of course form the majority of the voting public. However, all indications are that the ‘undecided’ form a significant percentage of the people eligible to vote. A smaller percentage of about four per cent say they will not vote.

According to the latest poll, two weeks before the election, the number of voters giving no answer is around 20 per cent. This also includes those who do not want to indicate their preference. Such a magnitude of voters still waiting to declare their decision of how to vote required more analysis by the political parties and more efforts by the parties to attract a good portion of them before it was too late.

It would appear that a large number of these undecided voters are or were supporters of the PN whose present election campaign, according to some polls, does not so far seem to have much effect on them.

There are always personal reasons when people decide not to vote but after the last election it was reported that a number of people had stayed away because they felt that some arrogance had crept into the Government after so many years in power and that it was time for a change.

On the other hand, the number of corruption charges which were raised just before the last election dissipated before the voting and did not seem to have worried voters unduly.The case made by the Labour Party at that time was not strong enough and the Nationalists were returned to power with the slightest of vote difference between the two major parties of 1,580, or a half per cent of the vote, certainly made up of the voters who made up their minds late in the game.

The question is what will happen this time and will the undecided voter again play the role of kingmaker?

The Nationalists have been in power for 25 years with hardly any interruption. This could be a major factor in the next election. The often quoted arrogance on the part of the party in power is aggravated by what, some think, is the attitude prevalent in the present campaign that no one can do any better and, in fact, giving the impression that the other party, if elected, will move the country backwards rather than forward.

The more persistent corruption allegations this time around could also have some impact on those voters still waiting to decide.

The reason that most undecided voters are still undecided is because they form part of the electorate that does not swallow whole anything dished to them. They want to hear both sides and then decide what is best for them and their country.

The campaign may not have exhausted what needs to be said on the major areas which interest the public most, like the economy, jobs, and cost of living.

Energy did, in fact, rightly figure prominently in the early stages of the campaign, although the debate could have been more useful had all the alternatives to the current system of energy generation been developed further. This was prevented from happening since on most occasions the energy discussion ended up in a shouting match, with some salient points left needing more clarification.

There is no doubt that in spite of the unstable international situation and the ongoing crises in some EU countries, the economy in Malta has been doing well and vital statistics like employment and the cost of living have been acceptable. Whether this would be enough to sway voters in these last stages of the campaign to return the PN to govern is an unknown factor.

A feature in this campaign seems to be that both parties are offering the world. If one party comes with a new attractive idea, it is quickly repeated by the other party. How much of all this can be implemented is another story.

The polls are not the whole story in the campaign since the sample is always rather small and there is no guarantee that the answers are always candid. Polls, however, show trends and politicians do take notice of them.

Labour this time around seems to be more credible than in the last election and people notice the quality of the candidates and the leadership. Although the PN is also fielding an impressive team, it is believed that, the leadership seemed to have lost some of its lustre.

The petty arguments by both sides, which seem to be taking the lion’s share of the campaign, are not doing either party any good and do not seem to be making too much inroads in the conversion of the undecided voters.

It is now too late for any party to go to the drawing board to come up with a more effective campaign aimed at the crucial undecided element in the Maltese electorate.

The paradox in the Malta electoral context is that one needs to convince the minority rather than the majority. As mentioned, the majorities in the two main parties are inflexible and nothing is expected to move them.

Michael Bartolo is Malta’s former Ambassador to the UN in Geneva.