I have no crystal ball but it’s obvious. The numbers are there and the signs too. The euphoria is all around. And history, that unforgiving master of all, foretells it: the PN is on the road to an electoral victory!
At least that is how it looks judging by the PN grandees’ reaction to the last survey about the state of the Maltese electoral pulse.
Now let’s delve a bit deeper into the numbers and the reality. Reality, unfortunately, seems to be far from giving any idea of a PN victory. Despite the euphoria of the PN clan, the numbers are catastrophic.
The gulf between the PN and the party in power is still over 20,000 if the survey conducted recently by Malta Today is in any way close to the truth.
It is undeniable that the party in opposition failed to make inroads under the leadership of Adrian Delia. The PN and Bernard Grech, however, seem to be happy because the difference between the parties has not been so small since Labour came into government in 2013.
The difference still seems insurmountable, and few miracles can be worked to get the PN to power. If we dig – even not too deeply – into what the scenario is right now, we see something frightening.
Instead of having the support of the huge majority of the Maltese electorate, Labour should be imploding and trailing any opposition party by huge margins.
We should be worrying that the opposition party (or parties or ramshackle groupings) is going to sweep away the election and do away with all Labour parliamentarians.
Instead, we have quite the opposite.
How is this possible? Think of what Labour has gone through and is going through.
It has won two elections in a row. Normally – except in extreme situations or in gerrymandered elections – parties are rarely given more than two consecutive mandates.
Ever since independence, that has been the norm except in 2008, when the PN won by a fluke wafer-thin majority and in 1981 when the Labour victory won because of gerrymandering.
Fatigue after two electoral victories is always evident. Support diminishes, verve disappears, and the people want a change even just for change’s sake.
The present ruling party has burdens which are much worse than fatigue. It is riddled with problems, which in most countries would have not just sent the party to the opposition benches but left it in disarray.
The rage of the people led by opposition forces would not have allowed the party to govern, let alone lead in the electoral opinion polls.
Labour in power is a tale of corruption, scandals, environmental fiascos, nepotism, cronyism, broken promises, justice denied and misrule of law.
We are in for more, not less, Labour arrogance in the coming years- Victor Calleja
The party in power had ministers who admitted they had no clue what was going on yet still signed and agreed happily to anything they were asked to do.
Crowning all these horrors was the assassination of Daphne Caruana Galizia. The crime was allegedly concocted and carried out by people close enough to people in power. This led to a spate of resignations but in any normal state, such a situation would have more than dented public approval of the party in power.
We also had – or maybe we still have – a manipulated police force and institutions which are riddled with problems. Our reputation worldwide is now more of a near-pirate island than a tranquil isle in the sun.
Yet, despite all these problems – and many others not mentioned here – according to all opinion polls, the party in power is backed by a huge majority of people.
With all these odds against it, Labour should be fighting for survival, not beating the PN by a foreseeable landslide.
Before the Labour victory of 2013, victories at the polls by anything over 10,000 votes were considered landslides and total aberrations.
So why are the PN bigwigs and supporters euphoric that their party lags behind Labour by double that?
We need a change. Labour needs to be kicked out of power as soon as possible. But with the PN as it is and the numbers as they stand, we are in for more, not less, Labour arrogance in the coming years.
Victor Calleja is a former publisher.