The future is decided by what we do today, and in a way the next four years of US policy, internally and to us people outside the US, this statement holds tight. The legacy of the US as the world’s super power, albeit a bit dimmer in the more recent years, looms large on the livelihoods of us all, in different magnitudes and shapes.
There can be little to no doubt that, the outside world, especially Europe and the cohort of developed countries which include Japan, Australia, South Korea and Canada as the main players, desire a change at the helm of the US presidency next November. Their list of grievances has grown harsher, with some of the biggest hits including, the imposition and threats of tariffs and trade barriers, throwing the climate agreement down the kitchen sink, threatening the NATO alliance and the cherry on the cake being, cozying to autocratic leaders and sworn nemesis of the developed world for decades.
So, by now it is clear, the outside world wants this administration out. The efforts of these countries to appease and win over the US have long been scrapped and resigned to waiting this administration’s term to expire. Despite all the sabre rattling, the world’s developed economies including the US, have chugged along over the last four years, mostly thanks to the reforms and still significant monetary accommodation.
With regards to the prospects of the outcome of the next US presidential election, there are basically three potential options. The first one is that the nomination of Donald Trump, as the Republican nominee is a foregone conclusion. Many states have given up on holding conventions, with two fringe candidates trying to contest the Trump nomination. Despite all the grievances inside the Republican party, they have stuck with precedent and decided to support the sitting President, in a move that will cost the party in the future when Trump exits the scene.
On the other hand, the Democratic nomination is a far different story. As a start, we had one of the most diverse fields of candidates, ranging from the typical white male and female, people of color, billionaires and for the first time, an openly gay candidate. Despite that, over the months the field had winnowed, as competition kicked in and going into the first primary, the field remained relatively wide in comparison to past primaries.
The first three states were Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. In all three states, the popular vote was won by nominee Bernie Sanders, (albeit Buttigieg got more delegates in the disastrous Iowa caucus). The Democratic Party designate front-runner, former vice-president Joe Biden, was having a hard time with his prospects of winning the nomination, disappearing from one contest to another.
Then came South Carolina. What happened in South Carolina is one of the most astounding back-flips in political history. As expected, Joe Biden pulled an all-in move in this state in order to rescue his fading chances in this nomination. Given his historic ties to this state and the very strong endorsement of unions in black communities, Joe Biden, as expected, managed to win this state. What happened after is what stands out as strange.
Overnight, three of the strongest competitors to the nomination, namely former Major Pete Buttigieg, Senator Amy Klobuchar and billionaire Tom Steyer all dropped out of the race and endorsed Joe Biden for the nomination, before the Super Tuesday vote. Despite the results from Super Tuesday’s voting are still coming in at the time of the writing, Joe Biden has managed to collect more states and delegates than Bernie Sanders.
Notwithstanding the efforts of the Democratic party to push Bernie Sanders out of the race (parallels with Trump’s 2016 Republican nomination), for being considered as too radical, the current delegate count stands at 566 delegates for Joe Biden against 501 delegates for Bernie Sanders. Even though 20 states and regions have assigned some 1,512 delegates, another 37 states and regions with a total of 2,632 delegates, are yet to hold their vote in the coming weeks and months.
This means the race remains wide open, with two frontrunners and Senator Elizabeth Warren holding on for now. In the meantime, I hear your asking, what is the platform of the two frontrunners? In the case of Joe Biden, his claim is that of having been vice-president to Barack Obama, and the man to choose to beat Donald Trump. In terms of policy, we are made to assume that it would be a return to the status quo. As for what are the loathed, radical ideas, of his opponent Bernie Sanders, these are namely, free healthcare, free education and climate change reform. For us on the other side of the Atlantic, these ideas, are considered as basic rights.
Disclaimer: Daniel Gauci is a financial advisor at Calamatta Cuschieri. For more information visit www.cc.com.mt. The information, views and opinions provided in this article are solely for educational and informational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice, advice concerning particular investments or investment decisions, or tax or legal advice.