Analysis of a sea change

Parliament resumed its business this week after a less than tranquil summer recess.

While MPs were looking forward to relax, a series of extraordinary events electrified the atmosphere and public opinion was taken by storm by the media.

The most outstanding episode involved the charge of alleged bribery of senior members of the judiciary in a drug-related case. From the outset, this was complicated by allegations that the defendants' right to a fair hearing had been compromised by the prime minister in the course of a televised broadcast.

Soon afterwards, the Public Broadcasting Services lost a court case where it was declared that PBS had acted in defiance and in breach of the Constitution and the Broadcasting Act. PBS had earlier failed to comply with a decision of the Broadcasting Authority, ordering it to broadcast a number of EU-related political spots prepared by the Malta Labour Party.

The ombudsman fired a devastating broadside, in the course of a newspaper interview, highlighting serious mismanagement in the public service and rebuking all concerned for what amounts to dereliction of duty. The government overreacted, displaying neither poise nor tact, and provoked hostile media criticism.

In a surprise move, Dr Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici announced that former prime minister Dom Mintoff plans to come in from the cold to lead a new 'front' opposing the way the government has been negotiating for EU membership.

The latest Labour Force Survey and the most recent tourism and trade statistics all told a story of relative decline.

To cap it all, three days before parliament reconvened (September 13), an EU working document revealed that Malta (together with Cyprus, Slovenia, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic) will become net contributors to the EU budget from the first day of enlargement.

For the sake of accuracy, and for the record, it must be added that sources close to the EU Commission said the EU intend to propose 'adequate compensation' for the above-mentioned candidate countries to ensure they will be net beneficiaries upon accession. It will be a matter for negotiation between member states to decide for how long this 'compensation' would be available.

The Fenech Adami administration faces the prospects of a referendum early next year, followed by a general election, with the possibility of a round of council elections tossed in between. With the above scenario as a backdrop, it will be a hard slog.

At this point, it is worth stressing that Malta applied formally for EU membership in July 1990. It had all the time in the world to gear up local conditions with a view to conforming with EU requirements and directives. Instead, it has procrastinated and has had to catch up in the course of negotiations which accelerated during the last couple of years.

Catching up implied taking on late burdens under pressure - and burdens have to be sustained by taxation.

Administrative capacity-building requirements for the adoption of the acquis for the years 2001-2003 called for an outlay approximating Lm20 million.

This involved the build-up of a qualified workforce for which Malta is paying well before accession.

In the course of negotiations, which are still ongoing, Malta has had to make concessions that will have an adverse impact on the economy.

The coastal zone in which local fishermen will have exclusive rights has been reduced substantially.

Farmers have complained that their interests are not being defended and industrialists allege they have been let down when protective levies started to be dismantled ahead of accession to the detriment of the food, beverage and the tobacco industries.

As negotiations proceed, the economy may be struck by other thunderbolts. As of now, there is uncertainty as to whether the EU will insist on the introduction of VAT on medicines and food and whether government subsidies for the dockyards will be permissible.

All of this involves a price and, to the extent that it has to be paid, it is additional to the EU 'membership' fee.

It is, of course, illogical to aspire the EU membership without meeting the obligations involved.

The point that will be raised by the electorate is whether the circumstances are ripe for Malta to consider membership at the first enlargement, the more so when the Fenech-Adami administration dilly-dallied for so long and failed to absorb the cost of preparation when circumstances were less stringent than today.

It is surprising that the EU working document, which has sent ripples of anxiety throughout the applicant countries, has not been published in full for local discussion, once it has come available to the world media. The least MIC could have done was to make the full text available before speculative interpretations compound the damage.

Before the publication of this report, the general assumption in Malta was that accession would involve the transfer of substantial structural and other funds, running into millions of euros, to Malta.

The promise made on the eve of the last elections, to the effect that Malta would start receiving Lm100 million a year once Malta's EU membership application was taken out of the deep-freeze, may have been an electoral gimmick.

But as long ago as 1989, Prof. Josef Bonnici and Michael Frendo drew up a study for the Chamber of Commerce which estimated that structural and other funds for Malta over the first 10 years of membership would amount to Lm267.6 million at 1988 prices. And this was supposed to exclude "any pre-accession aid... and any other specific programmes for Malta and Maltese firms".

Things have changed drastically since then. At this point, it is essential to marshal the facts for public scrutiny.

Columnists and politicians may produce all manner of interpretations. It will be the electorate that will pass final judgment.

The electorate is most likely to take the view that, when the facts change, it is time to make a new assessment. That assessment will come out of the ballot box.

It will be expressed by industrialists and shopkeepers, by workers, farmers, fishermen and by the professional classes, who will look at the new condition through the prism of their interests.