Never has the call for climate action been given centre stage as in recent days and months. After years of climate scepticism there seems to be general consensus that this is a mainly man-made problem that needs to be tackled now and not a potential threat one may face solely in the near or long term.
It is evident that the French government is determined to make a success of their COP21 conference in December. Never has there been such a flurry of activity at various levels to ensure that the broadest level of consensus can be hopefully reached.
But what kind of deal are we angling for and what type of arrangement can one expect under a best- or worst-case scenario?
Since a month ago informal consultations have intensified further. The momentum will be sustained in the coming months. The European Commission and the Moroccan government will be holding a meeting on one of the thorniest subjects: INDCs – intended nationally-determined contributions. This phrase is being used to describe the climate pledges countries will make ahead of the UN negotiations in Paris later this year.
CHOGM will, arguably, be the most timely event, coming literally on the eve of the Paris COP meeting and bringing together such a diversity of economies and a whole tapestry of countries with varying degrees of climate risk and exposure.
When we were invited for an urgent informal ministerial consultation in Paris together with about 40 other delegations, I was struck by two factors: that the major emitters (the US, China and India) were all present and that the major regional blocs were all there too. In climate terms, the so-called BRIC countries have now morphed into BASIC countries, with Russia hardly engaged in the process and the emphasis having now focused more on Brazil, South Africa, India and China.
Never has the call for climate action been given centre stage as in recent days and months
Some climate watchers asked me a very logical and pertinent question: how much do politicians expect to influence the final outcome when none of them are negotiators?
There is a simple reply: negotiators invariably follow the political brief of their governments whereas, on the other hand, these meetings were never intended to replace the formal negotiation sessions but merely support them at the political level.
Ban Ki Moon’s strong personal commitment to the climate change issue is as strong as that of the Pope and Barack Obama.
When meeting him briefly at the margins of the recent UN meeting, the moment I mentioned my country CHOGM 2015 came up instantly from his end. He sees CHOGM as a potential game- changer on the eve of the COP meeting. Usually, many would tend to dismiss such heads of State and of government meetings as a mere talking shop and a pretext for a comfortable retreat.
If there is one subject that can determine the success or failure of COP21 this is, no doubt, the whole issue of climate finance with all its international complexities and multidimensional perspectives.
The French are taking what I consider to be a realistic but ambitious look ahead through the pillars they are working on actively.
Pillar one: to get an agreement, the first universal agreement to contain the 1.5-2° barrier.
Pillar two: the INDCs, whereby every country must deliver its commitment for the future. The EU has already delivered its commitment for all its 28 member states.
Pillar three: finance and technology – this can prove to be tricky because there is a gap between a commitment and implementation. In Copenhagen, a commitment had been made to deliver, by 2020, circa $100 billion every year, mainly the rich countries towards the poor or developing countries.
Pillar four: the so-called agenda for action or the Lima-Paris Agenda, which, in practical terms, means taking advantage of COP21 to ask many local authorities, many companies and civil society to make commitments as well, particularly in the case of big cities and large companies and corporations.
Which leaves us with the US and China.
My personal take is that Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry are very mindful of the legacy they intend to leave behind in the climate sector.
On the other hand, while demonising the Chinese might be the easiest thing to do, the best way to gauge whether they are really climate heroes or villains is to study carefully and analyse their plans for low carbon transition as the Irish have done through an interesting study by their Institute Of International and European Affairs.
Leo Brincat is Minister for Sustainable Development, the Environment and Climate Change.