Avoiding a birth rate hard landing

Birth rates are plummeting worldwide, but many agree that this is not simply because people do not want children anymore. Malta’s 2023 fertility rate of 1.06 was the lowest in Europe. This certainly does not make us the “best in Europe”. So how can we avoid a birth rate hard landing?

Social and cultural shifts are driving falling birth rates in most western democracies. According to sociologists, falling birthrates are the result of greater female participation in the workforce, as well as increased access to contraception. According to the UN, more working women help economies grow, but they also contribute to lower birth rates.

Despite governments’ attempts to support families with young children, in many countries, birth rates continue to decline. Norway, a wealthy country, has strong family support policies and job security. Still, its fertility rate plummeted from 2 in 2009 to 1.41 in 2022.

Many demographers and economists argue that Europe’s attempts to boost its flagging birth rate are missing the mark. We must rethink, including changing tack to accept and embrace the economic reality of an ageing population. Creating financial incentives for couples to have more children will never be enough.

While we admit no one really knows what kind of family poli­cy would work in the present situation to promote fertility, we need to conduct a critical analysis of the factors behind young couples’ reluctance to have children.

While family-friendly policies will always help parents with young children, tackling the cultural factors contributing to low fertility rates remains the most formidable challenge European governments face

A 2023 OECD report suggests that the reasons behind the fall in fertility rates include changing gender roles, a greater focus on careers, and even how social media amplifies the sense of insecurity.

Marta Seiz is a Madrid-based university professor of family sociology, demography and inequalities. She argues that factors such as soaring housing costs and job insecurity are linked to falling fertility rates in Spain and elsewhere. Spain’s fertility rate of 1.19 is the lowest in Europe after Malta’s.

While family-friendly policies will always help parents with young children, tackling the cultural factors contributing to low fertility rates remains the most formidable challenge European governments face. With the endemic short-term mindset of political leaders, it’s hard to be hopeful that long-term strategies to promote higher birth rates will be defined anytime soon.

Finnish demographer Anna Rotkirch observes profound cultural changes in surveys assessing a drop in fertility in her country. She comments that many young adults now see a fundamental trade-off between parenthood and other goals, adding, “This goes right into what is a desirable, pleasant and attractive path, lifestyle, and broader values and ideals”.

The truth is, no one really knows which family policies will help bring about the cultural change that will encourage couples to have more children.

Some economists, like David Miles of Imperial College London, reject the demographic ‘timebomb’ warning we often hear. They argue that raising the retirement age even further and improving life expectancies will significantly mitigate the fertility crisis. Other economists, such as Willem Adema of the OECD’s Social Policy Division, cite teleworking and other flexible arrangements as ways to help more women enter the workforce.

I believe there is far too much magic thinking among academics and too little sense of urgency among political and business leaders.

Beyond anti-immigration rhetoric, some European countries can promote greater labour immigration. In Europe today, some 10 million non-EU workers are critical to supporting various economies. In countries like Malta, with physical and human capacity limitations, relying on even more labour importation can be less pragmatic.

So I do not believe we can rely on any silver bullet to help us move away from the lowest fertility rate ranking in Europe. We need to keep focusing on family policies to support would-be parents’ decisions. However, a broader debate is needed on how to address low fertility, which traditional family policies alone would not fix.

The role of the stay-at-home mother who cares for young children and, frequently, also for ageing relatives with health challenges, must be more tangibly recognised and enhanced.

Paying mothers and fathers for sacrificing their careers to contribute to the social well-being of our society would be a good first step to avoid a demographic hard landing in the next decade. This may mean that our economic growth could be dented for some years. Realistically, it could also mean that our lifestyles will be less dependent on maximising our income and on small ‘luxuries’ that we treasure.

Ultimately, we have to make trade-offs to achieve the best future socio-economic outcome for our society.