It is no exaggeration to say that this November’s presidential election in the US is the most consequential one at least in recent history.
The result will have a profound impact not only on what direction America takes and what values it embraces but also on the future of multilateralism, NATO, EU-US ties and the fight against climate change.
Donald Trump has been a dangerous and terrible president. He is a pathological liar, he unleashes the worst impulses in people, has no interest in finding common ground, he creates an atmosphere which allows racism to thrive, has undermined the rule of law and has consistently attacked the media, calling it “the enemy of the people”. Numerous people connected to Trump, either through his 2016 campaign, his presidency or his business, have been charged with various crimes.
This is not what we expect from the so-called ‘leader of the free world’.
The US president has proven to be an incompetent leader and his poor management of the COVID-19 pandemic is ample proof of this. He has spent a good deal of his presidency trying to undo much of the legacy of his predecessor, Barack Obama, simply out of spite, and his economic record is one of record debt and deficit figures.
America’s international image and reputation under Trump has hit rock bottom. His ‘America First’ strategy has alienated his allies and caused ripples in the global community. Trump has undermined NATO and the EU and has failed to stand up to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
He withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, the Paris climate accord, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the World Health Organisation. He has adopted a completely one-sided, exaggeratedly pro-Israeli position in the Middle East, effectively putting an end to the two-state solution.
Trump’s challenger, the Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, is currently ahead in the opinion polls. Most importantly he is leading in most of the ‘battleground states’ which will ultimately determine the outcome of this election.
Hopefully, this trend will continue but it important to note that because of America’s flawed Electoral College electoral system, it is possible for Trump to win the presidency even if he loses the popular vote by five million votes. (Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by three million but ‘lost’ to Trump in the Electoral College).
It is therefore imperative that Biden and the Democrats take nothing for granted and urge everyone to vote.
A Biden presidency is exactly what America and the world need right now. Biden would adopt common sense, centrist policies. He would attempt to heal divisions in American society, bring people together and restore America’s global leadership and its belief in multilateral alliances. Biden’s path to the presidency has been clouded by the once unthinkable possibility of a sitting US president refusing to concede in the event of defeat. Trump has started to bring up all sorts of excuses connected the electoral process, such as postal vote fraud. And he has refused to state categorically whether he will step down if he loses.
A scenario in which Trump refuses to accept the election result would be a dark day for America and the world. It would place the US alongside countries like Belarus and change America forever.
But it would also be an opportunity for the people around Trump and for America’s independent institutions to stand up and be counted.
Trump is already severely testing American institutions. That scenario would be the ultimate test of its democracy, with national and global consequences too alarming to contemplate.