Blair back in power - but for how long?

Tony Blair has only just walked back into No. 10 Downing Street - but already Britons are asking when he will be out the door.

Despite awarding his Labour party a historic third straight term, disillusioned voters at least halved his parliamentary majority, denting his authority when he needs it more than ever.

With powerful Finance Minister Gordon Brown, 54, hungry for the top job and Mr Blair, 52, saying he will not stand again, the Prime Minister could turn into a lame duck, analysts said.

Defeat in a planned 2006 referendum on the European Union constitution could trigger the end of the Blair era.

"As soon as the election is over the struggle begins for the future of the Labour party," said Eric Shaw, doctor of politics at Stirling University.

"Things are going to have to be resolved fairly quickly." Yesterday's return to the Prime Minister's London home and office was relatively sombre for Mr Blair and a stark contrast to the euphoric scenes of 1997 when he swept to power with a landslide as the youngest British leader since the early 19th century.

Protests over his integrity and support for the US-led Iraq war, combined with disillusionment after eight years under Labour, prompted many voters to switch allegiance - cutting Mr Blair's majority to between 60 and 80 seats from 161 before.

By historical standards, it is a respectable majority in the 646-seat parliament and a sufficient mandate to govern.

But next to Labour's last two landslides and in the wake of endless speculation about Mr Blair's leadership, it can only precipitate his exit, analysts said.

"This will be seen as placing a question mark over his head. It will make it more likely that he will go in a year or the next 18 months," said Kevin Theakston, politics professor at Leeds University.

Dogged by speculation about his health - he was treated for heart palpitations last year - and the damage from Iraq, Mr Blair took the unprecedented step last year of saying he would serve a full third term, if elected, but not a fourth.

In 2006, Mr Blair has promised a referendum on the EU treaty and must convince a British public overwhelmingly opposed to it. France could still spare him that fight if it rejects the treaty on May 29 - a move that would likely scupper it.

If the British referendum goes ahead, a "No" vote would likely force Mr Blair's departure, analysts said.

Victory in the referendum, too, could provide Mr Blair with a convenient way out of office, having fulfilled his long-stated dream of putting Britain "at the heart of Europe".

Mr Blair's powers of persuasion were once legendary but some in Labour feel the man who was once Labour's greatest electoral asset has cost it votes - for which he may have to pay a price.

Mr Blair and Mr Brown, whose rivalry dates back years, united for the campaign, putting the economy at the heart of Labour's bid for re-election. But pundits said the truce would not last.

Bookmakers William Hill yesterday were already offering odds of 2/1 on Mr Brown becoming Prime Minister in 2007.

With Mr Brown, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, demonstrably more popular among the Labour faithful and the public, many in the party may feel they would be better with him at the helm.

"Power will start visibly seeping through the walls to Number 11 Downing Street to the chancellor," Prof. Theakston said.

Mr Blair helped transform the Labour party in the 1990s into an electable force, dragging it to the political centre ground to woo Britain's middle classes. Many among Labour's grass roots have always been uncomfortable with the shift.