Blair on course for win

But by how much?

As Britain's general election campaign hits full stride, all the opinion polls suggest Prime Minister Tony Blair is on course for a third term in power.

But a second goal that will be almost as important for the premier - a workable parliamentary majority of 70 or 80 seats - looks far less certain. Mr Blair has already declared he will not seek a fourth mandate but wants to serve a full third term.

With a small majority in Parliament, a rump of disaffected left-wing members of his Labour party could sink any number of policy plans, turning him into a lame duck leader and maybe hastening his demise.

Since waging war in Iraq, Mr Blair has faced a growing band of rebels within his own camp, most of whom should be re-elected on May 5.

A hard core of between 30 and 40 Labour Members of Parliament (MPs) have consistently voted against him on subjects ranging from higher education fees to anti-terrorism laws over the last two years and many more have defied him on individual issues.

"Anything below 60 would prove awkward in managing a parliament with Labour rebellions and could make Mr Blair seem like an electoral liability," said Peter Kellner of pollsters YouGov.

A Reuters poll of political analysts and academics, conducted last week, found most forecast Labour would win with a majority of 40-79 seats - firmly in that grey area which could hamper Mr Blair's ability to govern.

In both 1997 and 2001, he won landslide majorities in Parliament of more than 160 seats.

"My own model predicts a 70-seat majority for Labour," said Paul Whiteley, professor of government at Essex University. "But, and this is the 'but', it doesn't take into account the turnout. The lower the turnout, the more Labour will suffer."

A raft of opinion polls, conducted over the past week, puts Labour's lead at anything from zero to seven points.

The UK's electoral map, which concentrates constituencies in Labour's urban strongholds, means the Conservatives must win a sizeably larger share of the vote than Labour to take power.

But there is little doubt Mr Blair's opponents have forced a real electoral contest for the first time since 1992.

"It's uncertain. The average of the polls shows something like a four point lead for Labour which would probably give a majority of a little over 100. But if that lead comes down a couple of points, it's much tighter," said John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University.

In what some have seen as a sign of weakness, Mr Blair last week ushered his old rival and ally, Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, back into the fold, all but promising him he would keep his job after the election and restoring him to the heart of Labour's election campaign.

Mr Brown remains favourite to succeed Mr Blair and polls show he is now the more popular man.

Some political insiders say the move, while improving Labour's chances at the ballot box, demonstrates that power is leaking away from the Prime Minister, who last year stripped Mr Brown of his traditional role as election strategy chief.

Mr Blair also faces a referendum on the European Union's constitution next year, unless France votes "no" to the charter in its own plebiscite next month.

Eurosceptic Britons are largely opposed to the constitution and if Blair cannot change their minds, his long-stated pledge to put Britain at the heart of Europe will make it difficult for him to continue in power.

"Tony says he wants to serve a full third term but not many of us believe he will be there in three or four years' time," said one Labour MP up for re-election.