Blair seeks elusive 'place in history' from G8

For Britain's Tony Blair, next week's world leaders' summit in Scotland could define his premiership as it enters its closing stages.

Following his declaration that he would serve a third term as Prime Minister but not seek a fourth, Mr Blair has three years or less to bank achievements that will mark him out in the history books.

A European Union in turmoil could offer opportunities but analysts say Britain's upcoming presidency of the bloc is a small window, given stiff opposition to London's reform agenda.

A lasting peace deal in Northern Ireland remains elusive, a successful bid for the 2012 Olympics would not bear fruit for years and on the domestic front, his government has become bogged down in public service reform.

But next week's Group of Eight summit, which Mr Blair will chair in the Gleneagles hotel, could be his chance.

"It's a very high priority for him," said Wyn Grant, professor of politics at Warwick University. "Africa is clearly a legacy issue, one of the things he really wants to do in his remaining time."

Mr Blair has set twin goals of combating African poverty and reaching global agreement to act against climate change.

Success on either front would be a major achievement. But failure represents a real threat, not least from members of his party already wondering how long he will stay at the helm.

Many hanker for finance minister Gordon Brown to take over and more - who bitterly opposed the Iraq war - are looking for evidence that Mr Blair will get a payback from President George W. Bush for his support of the 2003 invasion.

"This is a key moment," a senior Labour parliamentarian said. "If the PM gets no change out of Bush, a lot of us are going to ask what the last three years were all about."

The signs are mixed.

London has secured a deal on debt relief for a clutch of African countries although Mr Brown supporters say that was their man's, not Mr Blair's achievement.

But Washington and others oppose a more ambitious plan which could raise an extra $50 billion in aid up front by issuing bonds using future development budgets as collateral.

Aid groups say that scheme is vital.

"If Africa is the flavour of the month, then the G8 meeting is likely to leave a sour aftertaste," Britain's Royal Institute of International Affairs (RIIA) said in a report.

On the global warming front, even Mr Blair has admitted a deal will be "very difficult".

In a leaked draft text for the G8 summit, the sentences "Our world is warming" and "We know that the increase is due in large part to human activity" are in brackets, indicating US disagreement by marking them out for possible deletion.

Mr Blair may face a hard choice - split with Mr Bush and get a strong climate agreement with other G8 members or stay with him, get a weak deal and be blamed for missing a crucial opportunity. Overall, The RIIA said, a more modest agenda may have achieved wider agreement but did not doubt Mr Blair's sincerity.

"The Labour government can be accused of being over-ambitious but not of hypocrisy," it said.

Supporters say Mr Blair deliberately set the bar high and should not take the blame if others do not sign up.

"If we succeed that will be great. If we fail it will be sad but it will not be through want of trying and I hope we will get some credit for that," British Environment Secretary Margaret Beckett said of the G8's climate change negotiations.