Blast spotlights battle for presidency

The bombing of Australia's embassy in Jakarta has thrown a spotlight on to Indonesia's radical Muslim fringe ahead of the September 20 presidential run-off, but it is unlikely to sway voters, analysts said.

Both candidates in the race have made public appearances at the site of Thursday's blast that killed nine people and injured more than 180. But the first skirmish in the public relations battle looks to have gone to President Megawati Sukarnoputri.

Locked in a bitter struggle with front-runner Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a former general, the president rushed back to Jakarta on Thursday from a royal wedding in Brunei to tour the blast site and urge Indonesians to remain calm but vigilant.

"Neither candidate is a winner from this... (but) it all depends on how the candidates handle it," said Sidney Jones, Southeast Asia head of the International Crisis Group thinktank.

"On the one hand, it could be that people will say that Megawati's government hasn't been serious enough, she hasn't done enough. On the other hand, she can use it, as she did, for the first time in a long time to look like she is taking decisive action," said Mr Jones.

"It was certainly more of an expression of urgent concern than she displayed after either Bali or the Marriott," Mr Jones said, referring to the 2002 Bali nightclub bombings and last year's attack on the JW Marriott Hotel in Jakarta.

After the Bali attack that killed 202 people and the Marriott blast that killed 12, Ms Megawati was strongly criticised for failing to respond quickly enough or provide decisive leadership, leaving the task to Yudhoyono, then her chief security minister.

Mr Yudhoyono, who has struggled against the incumbent's dominance of the state media and election laws that prohibit campaigning until the week before the vote, still manages to lead by a considerable margin in all opinion polls.

He also took the opportunity to condemn the attack and visit the site on Thursday, but gained much less media coverage.

"Since it's so close to the election it could actually resound to Megawati's benefit," said Mr Jones.

Police have said the latest attack bore all the hallmarks of Jemaah Islamiah, the same al Qaeda-linked group blamed for Bali and the Marriott.

Both Mr Yudhoyono and Ms Megawati have pledged to be tough on militants. But Mr Yudhoyono's military background and record as chief security minister have given him an edge.

Indonesian media yesterday expressed horror over the attack, with some saying the government had failed to take the threat of the country's militant Muslim fringe seriously enough.

"The bombing has crushed trust in Indonesia and public trust in the government," Media Indonesia newspaper said.

Others were quick to distance the attack from Islam in the world's most populous Muslim nation.

"No religion can bless such an act of terrorism. So if the group of bombers claims to be representing a religion, it will only embarrass the religion it follows," said the Muslim-oriented paper Republica.

But despite the outcry, analysts said the attack itself was unlikely to play into the choice of ordinary voters on September 20.

"I think people are going to vote for quite different reasons. Foreigners looking at Indonesia think the bomb is the big news. Bombs are not that unusual in Indonesia," said Harold Crouch, an Indonesia expert from the Australian National University, who was in the embassy at the time of the blast.

"Indonesians are interested in a forceful leader, but not because of the terrorism," he said.

In a nation where some 40 per cent of the workforce are unemployed or underemployed, voters have shown more concern for jobs and food prices than security.

"Based on surveys, it seems that unemployment is the first priority, then corruption. Those are the policies that voters care about in Indonesia," said Joseph Kristiadi of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta.

Mr Kristiadi said the embassy blast highlighted the current administration's reluctance to publicly discuss the dangers of Indonesia's radical Muslim fringe, but ultimately the winner on September 20 would make little difference.

"In the past Megawati and SBY worked together, now they are trying to be separate," he said, using Mr Yudhoyono's nickname.

"Civil society and the people must mobilise to push them, to pressure them in order to put issues like terrorism more firmly on the agenda."