In the face of rapid change and high uncertainty, responsible policy making requires preparation for the unexpected. Over the past decade, Europe and the world have been facing crisis after crisis. Changes in climate, digital technologies and geopolitics are having a profound effect on the lives of citizens across the globe in different ways.
The COVID-19 pandemic has been unprecedented, incredibly challenging and sometimes outright frustrating for societies and economies. It is also exposing underlying vulnerabilities and dependencies that governments and institutions may have not anticipated or planned for.
Citizens’ ordinary lives and business operations were heavily disrupted. There are those who lost loved ones, others whose livelihood is at risk while there are others who benefitted exponentially as a result of changing demands and supplies.
The government in Malta took concrete action to leave no one behind, by giving businesses a lifeline, saving jobs and, more importantly, saving lives.
We have also seen an increased demand for capacity to anticipate trends, emerging issues and their potential implications and opportunities in order to draw useful insights for strategic planning, policymaking and preparedness. The ongoing pandemic fuelled the need to build collective intelligence across the EU in a structured and systematic way to better develop possible transition pathways, prepare to withstand shocks and shape the future we envisage.
It is against this background that the European Commission set up the EU Foresight Network at a political level.
I have been nominated as the member of the Maltese government in this network, led by the European Commission’s vice president, Maroš Šefčovič. At the first ‘Ministers for the Future’ meeting held in May, in Coimbra, Portugal, I called for the well-being and prosperity of every citizen to be central to the European Union’s strategic foresight for a resilient future.
The best, if not the only, meter to measure economic success is the social well-being of the community and our shared quality of life. Public policy seeking general social well-being necessitates strategic decisions, priority based planning and vision. In this context, quick gains and unsustainable activities make way for longer term investment, environmentally sound activities and more resilient economies.
Strategic foresight explores different possible futures, alongside the opportunities and challenges they might present- Stefan Zrinzo Azzopardi
Strategic foresight is not about predicting the future or the cause of all calamities. It explores different possible futures, alongside the opportunities and challenges they might present. Ultimately, it will help us act in the present to shape the resilient future we want rather than repeat mistakes of the past.
It revolves around the idea of building better anticipatory governance. This requires systematic embedding and application of strategic foresight throughout the entire governance architecture, including policy analysis, engagement and decision-making.
The partnership being built through this network draws on the public administration foresight capabilities of each of the member states. Member states have different foresight capacity, in the same way they have different approaches to governance and administration, different resources and different economic priorities.
The EU Foresight Network’s success will depend on its ability to serve as the platform to align priorities, exchange information and resources and promote a concerted European approach over diverging national interests. The greatest lesson derived in a year and a half of unprecedented crisis is the strategic value of coordinated action.
Following the lead of the UN and OECD, which have well established anticipatory governance structures, large and small states alike in Europe and beyond are developing their own foresight capacities.
Systemically embedding the practice of regular, useful, impactful foresight and its subsequent use in decision-making is what is expected out of modern, skilled and effective leadership through public service. It will yield more resilient societies, effectively meaning robust sustainable economies and public services able to withstand shocks.
Our citizens deserve a better and more resilient future. We must be capable to meet individual aspirations whilst enabling communities to progress sustainably.
Stefan Zrinzo Azzopardi, Parliamentary Secretary for European Funds