China's Sars epidemic not fading yet - WHO

The Sars epidemic is showing no signs of fading in China, even though the number of cases is declining, WHO experts said yesterday as Taiwan reported more infections and Greece said it may have its first case.

But the head of the International Monetary Fund said if Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome is contained, its economic impact on Asia should be manageable and its global effect limited.

China, where the disease first appeared late last year, said its death toll from the virus rose by 10 to 262 - more than half the world's total - and 80 more people had come down with the disease, 48 in Beijing.

That was the fourth straight day of fewer than the 100 or more new cases in Beijing reported for more than two weeks.

But the World Health Organisation said that did not mean it could see light at the end of the tunnel in a country battling to keep Sars from spreading into rural regions where health care is poor at best, although there was hope.

"We may be seeing a downward trend," WHO consultant Keiji Fukuda told a news conference. "The bottom line is that it is too early to say that the epidemic is tailing down, but we do hope to see that in the next few weeks."

The lower numbers of new cases is helping ease the panic that has spread in Beijing and Hong Kong, where 225 people have died, and more people are emerging from their homes.

But there were ominous signs the previously unknown virus was starting to slow China's economic growth.

China, the world's fastest growing major economy, said growth in foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic savings slowed in April.

Some economists said worse was to come for the country that overtook the United States last year as the top destination for FDI as foreign firms moved to tap its cheap labour and vast market.

But Horst Koehler, IMF managing director, told a news briefing in Geneva the fund was monitoring the outbreak and while it was still difficult to estimate its full economic impact, there was some hope it would be contained.

"If the disease is contained soon - and there is a good prospect for that, as we see it - the macroeconomic impact in Asia should be manageable, given the robustness of the economies in the region, and the impact on the global economy will so be limited," Koehler said.

But in the meantime, damaging economic ripples were also affecting Taiwan, where 30 people have died. The government said it expected Sars to lop 2.9 per cent off export orders in the second quarter of this year compared with the first three months.

Airlines, among the industries most hurt by Sars, illustrated their pain in hard numbers.

Cathay Pacific, Hong Kong's main carrier, said its passenger traffic fell a year-on-year 65.7 per cent in April.

China Southern, based in Guangdong, said it carried 36.5 percent fewer passengers in April than in the same month of last year. Overall, passenger traffic on Chinese airlines fell a year-on-year 25.7 per cent, the government said.

From China's Guangdong province, Sars has spread to more than 30 countries and Greece said it may have its first case - a foreign female flight attendant who arrived from Hong Kong.

"I stress this is not a confirmed case yet," Health Minister Costas Stephanis told Greek television.

Singapore authorities said 24 mental health patients and three nurses were isolated as possible Sars sufferers, raising fears of a fresh outbreak in the island state.

Singapore had shown success in curbing the spread of the virus and nobody had contracted Sars since April 27.

Nigeria put its health officials on a heightened alert after what it said could be the first death from Sars in Africa's most populous country.