Malta and other southern European countries could see shifts in crop suitability as a result of climate change, according to an EU draft paper.
Uneven effects of climate change on agriculture are likely to amplify regional differences across the European Union,and farmers are being urged to think how to adapt to warming, the European Commission said.
Here are the main potential effects of climate change for agriculture in the EU's regions, as summarised in the Commission's draft paper to be published next month.
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN EU:
Bulgaria, Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, southern France and southern Romania.
- will feel the combined effect of large temperature rises and reduced rainfall in irrigation-dependent areas that already face water scarcity.
- Iberian peninsula: annual rainfall may drop by up to 40 percent compared with current levels by the end of the century.
- by 2050, there could be shifts in crop suitability -- such as spring crops -- from southern areas to higher latitudes as climate changes continue.
CONTINENTAL EU
Austria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, northern Romania, southern/eastern Germany.
- models predict rainfall increases during winter and the possibility of large reductions in summer rainfall in several areas such as Hungary and northern Romania.
- climate variability likely to increase; farming activities likely to be affected by high temperatures and summer droughts, higher risk of soil erosion, migration of pests and diseases.
- regions such as Poland, Czech Republic and eastern Germany may see longer growing seasons that will increase yields and the range of crops.
WESTERN/ATLANTIC AREAS OF EU
Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, United Kingdom, western/northern France.
- predicted mean temperature increases are more moderate than for other regions.
- extreme events (heavy storms, floods) likely to become more frequent due to warmer temperatures and higher volume/intensity of rainfall, particularly in winter.
- summers likely to be drier and hotter. This could lead to conflicting demands between agriculture and other users for access to reduced water supplies.
- one of the greatest problems may be rising sea levels that affect low-lying and productive farmland in eastern England, the North Sea coasts of Belgium, Netherlands and Germany.
NORTHERN AREAS OF EU Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Sweden.
- violent storms, flash floods with higher and more intense rainfall to be expected, particularly in winter and especially in northernmost regions like Sweden and Finland.
- it may be possible to cultivate new crops due to longer growing seasons. Yields could also increase substantially if warming is limited (less than 3 degrees Celsius).
- agricultural production could suffer from new pests and diseases, which would benefit from warmer conditions.
- warming could also aggravate water quality problems in Baltic Sea.
- permafrost melting due to warming likely to pose a concern for soil structure.