Catastrophic floods and fierce wildfires have been tearing through the Mediterranean, leaving scorched earth and shattered lives in their wake. These disasters are no longer isolated incidents – they are clear signs of a climate unravelling.
Nearly 30 years after the first Conference of the Parties (COP) in Berlin, the climate crisis remains as urgent as ever, with the world teetering dangerously close to breaching the threshold to keep global warming to below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Today, negotiators from around the world will gather in Baku, Azerbaijan. Will this conference reignite global momentum and turn pledges into concrete, enforceable actions? That remains to be seen. One thing, however, is certain: we cannot afford another conference filled with empty promises.
Unlike last year’s high-profile event in the United Arab Emirates, COP29 is expected to draw a more modest crowd. This is partly due to Baku’s limited hosting infrastructure and the relatively late announcement of Azerbaijan as the host. Notably, this marks the third time a major fossil-fuel-producing country has taken on the role of host – and the second time in just two years.
Climate finance and ‘the NCQG problem’
Dubbed the ‘financial COP’, COP29 is set to prioritise a key challenge: securing a new annual funding target to assist developing nations in combating climate-change impacts.
The discussions surrounding the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) remain fraught with disagreements: almost every aspect of it – including the scale of the new target, the contributor base, the scope of financial support and the relevant articles of the Paris Agreement – remain a bone of contention.
The scale and sources of climate finance remain a bone of contention. The pressing questions are clear. How much funding will developed nations commit? Who should shoulder this financial responsibility? Which developing countries will, ultimately, benefit from these crucial funds?
Enhanced Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
Countries are expected to present updated and more ambitious NDCs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, aligning with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target by February 2025. Yet, current policies put the planet on track to experience approximately a 2.6-3.1°C rise by 2100, according to UN estimates, far overshooting the Paris goal.
Energy Transition Initiatives
The declarations and pledges for COP29 show that its leadership is taking a broad and multifaceted approach to tackling climate change. One major focus is improving energy infrastructure and storage capabilities worldwide. This acknowledges that efficient energy storage is key to scaling up renewable energy, which often relies on variable sources like solar and wind power.
The push for green hydrogen, produced using renewable energy, is a significant move aimed at reducing emissions in sectors that are difficult to electrify, such as heavy industry and long-distance transport.
COP29 includes an ambitious Hydrogen Declaration and a Declaration on Reducing Methane from Organic Waste. Additionally, the Green Digital Action Declaration seeks to cut emissions in the information and communication sectors.
However, this ambition must be paired with practical action plans and support for countries that lack the resources to effectively carry out these strategies.
Trump-ification?
COP29 starts just six days after the US presidential election, which saw Donald Trump being elected. Based on Trump’s previous climate policies and statements, a second administration would likely prioritise energy independence and economic growth over international climate commitments, promoting fossil fuel exploration and production, laxing environmental regulations.
This could result in the US withdrawing from the COP process and the Paris Agreement, significantly dialling back US action to cut emissions and international climate commitments, scaling down enthusiasm for greater global climate ambition. Furthermore, the absence of US leadership may shift the burden to other countries, such as the EU and China, to uphold climate goals and drive global policy changes.
Revisiting global emissions trading
Negotiators will also revisit Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, to establish stronger rules for global emissions trading. The goal is to finalise the framework for international carbon markets, focusing on transparency and environmental integrity. These rules are essential to prevent double counting of emissions reductions, which is crucial for maintaining credibility and ensuring cost-effective global efforts to mitigate climate change.
What is missing?
• Fossil Fuel Subsidies: COP29 lacks progress on phasing out fossil fuel subsidies. The current agreement on ending ‘inefficient’ subsidies lacks deadlines, an action plan and measurement tools, allowing countries to continue these programmes.
• Critical Materials: The agenda does not address the importance of critical materials essential for the energy transition. Such materials are found in batteries, wind turbines and solar panels etc. Risks, like the potential weaponisation of rare earth elements, threaten the deployment of renewable technologies and deepen geopolitical divides.
• Debt Solutions: Comprehensive debt relief and restructuring are overlooked. Such measures can free up funds for governments, support economic activity and reduce financial risk, aiding climate initiatives in developing nations, funding important initiatives that private investors might not find profitable.
Without real action on national debt, many developing countries could end up stuck in a cycle where they must choose between staying financially stable and taking climate action, while facing challenges in attracting investment.
• Trade Measures: Discussions on carbon border taxes, proposed by China and the BASIC group, are missing from the agenda. These measures are seen as protectionist and could harm developing economies, facing resistance from the EU.
Rachel Powell is an advocate.