Amid mounting global concerns over climate change, COP28 in Dubai emerges as a pivotal battleground for divergent interests.
Controversies surrounding the COP presidency and disagreements on climate funding set the stage for crucial discussions possibly shaping the trajectory of global climate policy.
Despite commendable UN efforts, the challenge remains: rallying public support and political commitment for effective climate action.
So what is the United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP)?
States party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) convene annually to evaluate national strategies, assess progress in upholding the convention’s objective and control emissions.
This year’s summit is set for November 30 to December 12, hosted in Dubai by the United Arab Emirates, recognised for its role in oil production and as a notable OPEC (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) exporter.
What is at stake?
The recent UN report stresses urgent action to cut greenhouse gas emissions and completely phase out unabated fossil fuels to cap the temperature rise at 1.5°C. The current trajectory foresees a 2.5°C temperature increase by the century’s end, with 2023 potentially being the hottest year on record.
Following the disappointing Bonn climate summit conclusion last June, UN Secretary General António Guterres criticised fossil fuels as “incompatible with human survival” and disparaged carbon capture technologies for enabling companies to be “more efficient planet wreckers”.
Climate inaction poses real risks, potentially stalling the growth of major economies like the US due to increased mortality and decreased labour productivity from ongoing emissions.
The consequences are vividly illustrated with Pakistan’s recurring threat of flooding, as witnessed in 2022, causing the loss of $30 billion in assets, equivalent to nine per cent of the country’s GDP. Not to mention the resulting severe pressure and risks for the agri-food and water systems underpinning human well-being.
This year concludes the global stocktake mandated by the Paris Agreement, reviewing progress on mitigation, adaptation and implementation objectives. The agenda also features discussions on the Global Goal on Adaptation and the long-standing debate on fossil fuel phase-out.
Jekyll and Hyde?
Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber’s appointment as COP28 president sparked concerns due to potential conflicts of interest. He advocated for increased involvement of fossil fuel companies in climate talks, drawing criticism from climate advocates and prompting a request for his replacement by 133 US senators and EU lawmakers in May.
As the Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and Special Envoy for Climate Change in the UAE, Al-Jaber is also the CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC). ADNOC, the largest drilling company in the Middle East, aims for an 85 per cent increase in fossil fuel production by 2027.
Climate change is an undeniable reality- Rachel Powell
Notably, Al-Jaber is the founder of Masdar, a clean energy firm investing in solar and wind projects across 40 countries, with a current capacity of 15 gigawatts, equivalent to emissions from 4.6 coal-fired power plants annually. The company aims to reach 100 gigawatts by 2030 and further double its capacity in the future.
Emission challenges
Climate change is an undeniable reality. Despite calls by COP28’s leadership and renewable energy organisations to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, contradictory actions emerge. The United Arab Emirates approved a substantial gas pipeline in July, presenting mixed signals from the host nation.
Disagreements persist on which financial responsibilities countries should bear. Developing nations are cautious due to energy security concerns and uncertainties about the costs of decarbonisation. Even within the EU, there’s discord; some member states propose using carbon capture technology while others stress the inadequacy of focusing solely on clean energy without ramping up phase-out efforts.
The failure to address key climate change aspects also persisted in the G20 leaders’ (EU included) meeting in New Delhi. Major emitters like China, the US and India increased solar and wind capacity but also escalated fossil fuel usage. The UK resumed new oil drilling in the North Sea, signalling divergent approaches to climate action.
Amid this, substantial energy subsidies were directed to fossil fuel industries, with around $1 trillion aimed at shielding consumers from energy price hikes after Russia’s Ukraine invasion. Regulators in New York dismissed proposals for renewable power inflation adjustments and the governor vetoed offshore wind projects seeking grid connection to Long Island.
Delays in funding
As climate disasters surge, leading economies like the US and China delay commitments to climate funding, leaving pledges from the Copenhagen talks uncertain. The unresolved Loss and Damage Fund, aimed at aiding vulnerable nations, faces disputes over administration and funding sources, with developing countries pushing for independent oversight or one supervised by a United Nations agency.
Accountability of wealthier nations remains pivotal in addressing unequal climate resources distribution. COP28 in Dubai anticipates tackling funding challenges and growing frustrations among developing nations. Innovative financial tools like windfall taxes and debt swaps are being considered. Compromised texts now urge developed states to spearhead funding without legal obligations, inviting contributions from others and carbon markets.
Climate justice
As COP28 approaches, global leaders, businesses and individuals must ardently advocate for climate justice. The International Energy Agency underlines the urgency for a resolute commitment: tripling global renewable capacity, doubling energy efficiency improvements, reducing methane emissions from fossil fuels by 75 per cent, establishing significant financing for clean energy investments in emerging economies and ensuring a systematic fossil fuel reduction.
The time for rhetoric is over; it is now a call to action for a sustainable and equitable future.
Will we rise to the challenge or falter in the face of climate crisis?
Rachel PowellRachel Powell is a warranted advocate. She is currently reading for a master’s in energy and environmental law with the University of Birmingham, specialising in conventional and renewable energy, infrastructure and ESGs.