Picture this: You wake up, check your weather app, and see clear skies ahead. You message your friends, pack your bags, and set off, eager for a sunny day -only to step outside and be met with an unexpected downpour. It’s frustrating, but before blaming the forecast, it’s important to understand that weather prediction always comes with a degree of uncertainty.
If you’ve ever questioned why forecasts sometimes miss the mark or wondered how meteorologists work behind the scenes to predict the weather, you’re not alone.
These very issues will be explored in-depth at the upcoming panel discussion "Decoding the Weather: The Science and Challenges of Weather Forecasting," hosted by the Malta Chamber of Scientists (MCS). The event will take place on Thursday, March 20 2025, at 19:00 at Friggieri Hall, Valletta Design Cluster, Valletta.
Weather forecasting is the science of predicting atmospheric conditions at a given time and place. It relies on collecting, analyzing, and interpreting vast amounts of meteorological data to anticipate weather patterns. Beyond daily planning, weather forecasts are critical for aviation, agriculture, disaster preparedness, and public safety.
Accurate weather predictions depend on real-time data collected from various sources. Satellites monitor large-scale weather patterns, helping to predict shifts in atmospheric conditions over wide areas. Radar systems track precipitation intensity, movement, and type, making them essential for short-term forecasts and severe weather warnings. Weather balloons gather upper-atmosphere data on temperature, humidity, and wind speed, while ground-based stations provide similar measurements at specific locations.
However, data collection is just the first step. To turn raw observations into useful predictions, meteorologists rely on advanced numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, which simulate atmospheric behaviour using mathematical equations. This process is so computationally intensive that it requires supercomputers to handle these calculations.
Despite technological advancements, forecasting remains inherently complex due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, where small changes can lead to drastically different outcomes - a phenomenon popularly known as the butterfly effect. Key challenges include accuracy limitations, as forecasts become increasingly unreliable beyond 7-10 days, making long-term predictions highly uncertain. Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and severe storms, are also difficult to predict with precision due to their rapidly changing conditions. Additionally, climate change is altering global weather patterns, making traditional forecasting models less reliable and requiring continuous adaptation.
Meteorologists play a critical role in translating complex data into clear, accessible information for the public. This is especially crucial during severe weather events, where timely warnings can mean the difference between safety and disaster. Yet, misconceptions persist; many expect forecasts to be precise, when in reality, they are probabilistic. This often leads to frustration when the weather doesn’t match expectations.
So, if you’ve ever been caught in the rain despite a sunny forecast or simply want to understand the complexities of predicting the unpredictable, join us for an engaging discussion on Thursday, March 20 and gain new insight into the fascinating world of weather forecasting.
The panel will feature experts from various meteorological fields, including Prof. Alfred Micallef (Department of Geosciences), Samuel Cutajar (Administrator at It-Temp Madwarna), Dr. Ryan Vella (Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, University of Mainz), and Dr. Daniel Galea (MetDesk Ltd), as well as Julia Ann Christine Borg and Daniel Calleja (Earth Systems Association). The discussion will explore the challenges of weather forecasting, the science behind predictions, and how meteorologists communicate uncertainty to the public.
This article is edited by Liliana Francalanza and brought to you by the Malta Chamber of Scientists