Libya’s two main competing factions are closer to reaching a peace accord than at any time since country was plunged into an all out civil war in July of last year.
Last week’s move by the Tripoli government to sack Prime Minister Omar Al-Hassi is widely seen as a bold attempt to eliminate an obstacle to an agreement.
Officially Mr Al-Hassi was removed on grounds of competence, following a request by a sizeable group of his own ministers. However, the main reason is believed to be his profile as a potential spoiler in the process.
The handover to his deputy Khalifa Ghweil, comes after the UN-sponsored peace talks taking place in Morocco broke off briefly last week to allow delegates from both Tripoli and the internationally-recognised Tobruk government to report on the progress.
The two sides are expected to meet again on Tuesday to resume talks. Diplomatic sources in Morocco told The Sunday Times of Malta that for the first time the two sides had agreed on a framework of how a new unity government would be set up. More importantly, they agreed that “talks reached a point of no return, in the positive sense”.
Nonetheless, the way ahead is still fraught. For one, the delegates are yet to meet each other facing each other at the same table. Instead each side is negotiating directly with UN special envoy Bernardino Leon and his team, in separate rooms, with mediators toing and froing between them.
The flashpoint for the dispute came in the aftermath of the June 2014 elections. Islamist political groupings, which had the upper hand following the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, were defeated by nationalist and liberal factions in those elections but they did not accept the result, partially because the turnout was just 18 per cent.
Eventually, the Islamists, including many moderates, and militias from the coastal town of Misurata, launched the Libya Dawn military operation which saw them seize control of the capital. This forced the internationally-recognised government to flee to Tobruk and seek the protection of General Khalifa Haftar, the leader of a military campaign against all types of Islamists in Libya.
In November Libya’s Supreme Court invalidated the June elections that voted in the country’s internationally recognised government. Nonetheless, the international community still continues to recognise the Tobruk administration as the legitimate government.
Right now no side has the fire power to deal a decisive blow to the other and that is why we probably will not see an escalation of violence
Since then, however, the two sides have been forced to confront the spectre of a growing Isis presence, which represents an existential threat to both sides.
Following a period of denial, political factions in Tripoli were forced to acknowledge this reality following the siege of the Corinthia Hotel in the capital in January.
Over the past weeks, Misurata’s Battalion 166, in particular, has been engaged in a fierce battle with rebels claiming to form part of Islamic State in neighbouring coastal city of Sirte, in which several terrorists were killed and a bomb-making ‘school’ destroyed.
But now that the Western side of the country appears to be on board, Libya analysts say the stumbling blocks will probably be found on the side of the Tobruk government and none more prominently than in the enigmatic persona of General Haftar.
The general was a key Gaddafi ally in the coup that put the dictator in power, but the two fell out by the late 1980s and he sought refuge in the US, incidentally taking up residence in Virginia, the home of the CIA headquarters in Langley.
Dubbed a ‘war criminal’ by the Tripoli government, General Haftar has long been seen as too divisive to be helpful by many. But now, even negotiators in Morocco are starting to get impatient with the General.
Throughout the talks, he has been carrying out attacks all over the country, targeting Libya Dawn locations – the latest example being from Tuesday when a site 60 kilometres south of Zuwara was bombed. And while the other side has retaliated in kind several times, the military power at the disposal of General Haftar is more robust and bolstered by Egypt which has long been accused of covertly supporting his side, despite an international arms embargo.
Right now no side has the fire power to deal a decisive blow to the other and that is why we probably will not see an escalation of violence. However, as one diplomatic source put it, there’s an element of “intransigence and sabotaging the peace process” on the side of General Haftar that is now becoming more evident with the Tripoli side making moves in the right direction.
It comes at a time when unity in the Tobruk government is starting to show serious signs of stress. In an interview with an online Libyan newspaper, Prime Minister Abdullah Al-Thinni openly questioned the competence of some ministers in his Cabinet, which, he said, were imposed on him.
“This weakens the Tobruk side because it calls into question its legitimacy… and in the coming weeks this will be used as a means to penalise intransigence,” the source said.