Bookmakers rely on a lot of accurate research to set their odds and to ensure that they are getting their edge. However, because there is a great variance between different leagues, that accuracy can sometimes get tripped up.

Top football competitions such as the Premier League tend to have a lot of predictable results because of the gulf in ability between the elite and the rest of the division. But down the leagues, increased unpredictably often means more risk for the bookmaker to undertake.

That’s why betting markets for the Premier League and UEFA Champions League are heavily promoted. Those highly visible competitions are good business for bookmakers because predictable results happen in a high percentage of matches. Still, there can be some difference in odds. Thus, punters who choose to bet on them are recommended to compare odds offered by different betting sites which can be picked up from lists compiled by Legalbet.uk, a website with a focus on analysing bookmakers, their odds and offers. 

But are there certain leagues that the people setting the lines fear more than others?

Lower league problems

The lower leagues in English football can be more problematic for bookmakers, to the point where they are unfavourable for them. They still have to cover the leagues with markets because of some degree of public interest.

But there’s just not the volume of insights and statistics into the lower leagues that you get with the Premier League, for example. There’s more unknown player quality around too, and these grey areas aren’t great when it comes to setting their lines.

Bookmakers have operational costs, and there’s a big imbalance for them to invest a lot in researching lower leagues that aren’t going to attract a lot of potential revenue. With the limited data from such leagues, there is a greater risk for them of mispricing the odds.

Beat bookmakers at the unpredictability game

Another big factor in why lower leagues tend to be more of an issue is because of relegation and promotion. England’s League One, for example, features seven new teams at the beginning of a campaign (four promoted from League Two, and three relegated from the Championship).

So each new season there is sort of a blank slate, whereas in comparison, you know who is going to be in the title race in the German Bundesliga, Serie A and the Premier League, season after season.

Low visibility leagues cause headaches

The low visuals on smaller leagues can be quite telling. While it’s easy to see Champions League matches broadcast, you aren’t going to get that coverage from League Two, for example.

But people who support teams in League Two are likely going to have a fairly good overall picture of what’s what in the division, which can help with betting decisions and for exploiting potentially weak positions in odds that a bookmaker, due to a lack of knowledge, has set.

Leagues with low visibility, which sort of equates to competitions from outside of Europe's big five, can be tricky for bookmakers. The odds-setters prefer to pull people towards those highly visible leagues where they can attract a lot of betting activity.

The volume of betting activity on a Premier League match-winner market, for example, is easier for a bookmaker to balance than a game from the Conference, where fewer bets will be taken.

When a lot of public support comes in on a home favourite in a Premier League match, the bookies will shorten their odds to make them less appealing, and lengthen the underdog’s odds to try and send bettors towards that side of the market.

But the lack of bets on the lower league matches, in comparison, means it’s hard for the bookmaker to gauge public support and how to balance the odds.

The player edge

So is it worth looking towards lower-ranked leagues for football betting? Is there an advantage to go hunting around in the lower leagues for potentially better odds? There is, but not without first doing your research so that you know what areas to target, as leagues tend to have their little nuances.

So don’t just jump in blindly, as it’s important to understand which markets in these leagues tend to fly under the radar a bit. It’s advisable to start putting together a betting strategy and just test it out for a few weeks on paper before putting any money down. That gives you time to tweak the strategy and to see what value there is, and where.

Remember, it’s the lower visibility, unpredictable leagues that can potentially expose bookmakers. But researching something like the Lithuanian second tier is going to be a lot harder than researching the League of Ireland, for example. Pick your battles wisely and be patient with it.

Disclaimer: Play responsibly. Players must be over 18. For help visit https://www.gamcare.org.uk/