Do not strike oil before 2004

Perhaps surprisingly, but perhaps not, for some reason or other oil exploration fails to excite the attention and interest of local parliamentarians. Since the beginning of this legislature, in October 1998, there have been around 760 parliamentary sessions, where over 34,000 parliamentary questions have been submitted.

Of these thousands of parliamentary questions, only three dealt with oil exploration and they were all tabled in 1998 and 1999. Just after the 1998 general elections Labour MP Joe Cuschieri had asked (PQ 1,439) about the tests and studies carried on the Kercem site prior to October 1996.

Just after the March 1999 local elections Labour MP Leo Brincat asked (PQ 5,774) about the relations between the media and the Oil Exploration Division in the Office of the Prime Minister.

In November 1999 Labour MP Adrian Vassallo asked (PQ 11,381) the Prime Minister for a detailed account of the expenditure on the oil exploration in Gozo in 1998 and 1999. The Prime Minister said that around Lm13 million were spent, nearly Lm5 million of them funded through the fourth Italian protocol.

The media seem as uninterested as Parliament where oil exploration is concerned. Usually the topic comes up on the eve of local and general elections. News stories are planted in the media suggesting that finally Malta is set to strike oil. It has also become boringly predictable that once the elections are over, local oil discoveries recede, only to resurface at the next electoral appointment.

Oiling the propaganda machine

One of the Nationalist Party's strategic communications units has already met to discuss and plan the planting of media stories about the bright imminent prospects of striking oil. Going by established tradition, the year 2003 should be the best year to strike oil as Malta and Gozo are likely to face three electoral appointments: local council elections, the EU referendum and the general elections.

It is ironic that probably oil will not feature at all in the campaigns waged by the Nationalist Party. Persons close to the Prime Minister have already shot down plans to raise the hopes and expectations of the electorate that there are bright times ahead, with millions of liri set to flow in from the oil that Malta is about to strike from its present offshore explorations.

The communications strategists of the Nationalist Party know that this time their message will not be trusted if they promise to lower taxation, bring in hundreds of millions of liri from EU funds and make Malta prosperous without really explaining how. These promises were made in the summer of 1998.

Four years later the Nationalist Party has delivered a rise of Lm240 million in taxes, with local taxpayers financing the government's headlong rush into complying with the obligations of EU membership, a declining manufacturing base, lower exports, stagnant tourism and thousands of families and pensioners finding it extremely hard to make ends meet.

It is understandably tempting for Nationalist Party strategists to use the bright prospect of striking oil as a tangible guarantee that the years of pain are over and that now we can all look forward to a happy and prosperous future. But it is likely that these strategists will have to do away with using oil discovery as their trump card.

On slippery ground

Within the Nationalist Party there are influential persons who believe that using this card would actually play into the hands of the Labour Party. Even those who favour EU membership know that an oil discovery would wipe away many of their arguments for membership. An oil-rich Malta would not receive any funds from the EU but instead would have to contribute to the EU coffers. Instead of using the income from oil to solve its grave public debt and deficit problems, Malta would have to share its wealth with other EU countries.

There are other arguments that can be easily marshalled to persuade people that it would be in the interest of an oil rich Malta not to join the EU. But the most important point at issue is not the impact that this has on Nationalist Party propaganda but on a more fundamental question: oil exploration itself.

The same people who argue that it is not in the interest of the Nationalist Party to use the prospect of finding oil for propaganda purposes, might easily make things happen in a way that it is not in the interests of Malta (read the Nationalist Party) to strike oil in the months preceding the referendum and the coming elections.