The EU’s infections agency expects COVID-19 cases in Malta to peak in the first week of December before starting to drop.

From around December 8, a public holiday, the numbers will start to drop again, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said in its latest forecast,  published before the new COVID-19 variant Omicron,  triggered global alarm.

The new variant has been found in several European countries and beyond. No cases have been reported in Malta. Travel between Malta and six southern Africa countries was banned as of Sunday as a precaution.

Malta saw an increase in COVID-19 cases in recent weeks, with the authorities saying they want to speed up the administration of booster jabs in order to ensure that as many people as possible are protected amid concerns that  immunity from the initial vaccines has started to wane.

The ECDC forecast for Malta. Image: ECDC

Last week was also the deadliest in months, with six patients dying while positive for COVID-19.

Malta’s death rate is among the lowest in Europe and the hospitalisation rate has remained low, with the number of patients requiring intensive care remaining unchanged for days. 95 new COVID cases were reported on Monday. Two of 15 hospital cases were in intensive care.  

According to the ECDC forecast, there are no spikes expected for both the hospitalisation and death rates.

Meanwhile, a look at the situation in other EU countries suggests most nations will continue with an upward trend while others, like Malta, will start to see their cases dip around mid-December.

France and Germany are expected to see high increases throughout December as will Spain, Denmark, Hungary, Italy, Czechia, Portugal, Belgium, Cyprus, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway and Slovakia.

Austria, Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Croatia, Lithuania, Latvia, Romania, Slovenia and Sweden will register drops throughout the same period, the ECDC predicted.

Predictions might have limitations and the ECDC warned that forecasts going beyond a period of one week “can rapidly become unreliable, especially in times of changing non-pharmaceutical interventions”.