As the war in Ukraine enters its third week, it is very clear that Russian President’s Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade his Slav neighbour has been a monumental miscalculation.
Ukraine has put up a remarkably brave fight, most of the country is still not occupied and Europe and the US have united in imposing the harshest economic sanctions ever on Moscow. The courage being shown by Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is an inspiration to the whole world.
This illegal and outrageous invasion has led to Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova applying for European Union membership, it has united both the European Union and the Transatlantic Alliance like never before, it has persuaded the EU to increase its military spending and to strengthen the bloc’s defence pillar and it resulted in a resounding condemnation of Russia’s war by a huge majority at the UN General Assembly.
This is not to underestimate the very serious nature of the war and the depth of suffering that the Ukrainian people are going through.
Russia has committed war crimes: it has bombed civilians and targeted hospitals, it has caused the largest refugee crisis since World War II, it has continuously lied throughout this invasion, it has threatened to destroy the concept of the Ukrainian state and it has shown a blatant disrespect for international law and civilised behaviour.
Besides economic sanctions, Europe and the US are also supplying the Ukrainians with defensive weapons and humanitarian aid. This is commendable.
There have also been calls, not least from the Ukrainians, for a no-fly zone to be imposed over Ukraine by NATO. At this point in time, such a move would be a dangerous step into the unknown and could lead to a conflict with Russia, which is in nobody’s interest. Such an escalation would certainly not be good news for Ukraine and, besides, most of the attacks by Russia have come from artillery and rocket fire, not from the air.
Economic, military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine must certainly continue and all Ukrainians fleeing this war must continue to be welcomed with open arms. Countries outside Europe, like the US, Canada and Australia, should also agree to take in Ukrainian refugees.
Those countries that have imposed economic sanctions on Russia must make it clear that further measures will be introduced if Moscow shows no flexibility in resolving this conflict. Other countries should also consider imposing sanctions.
Most important of all, the international community must be prepared for the situation to get worse and to have a strategy in place to respond to even more shocking behaviour by Russia. What will the United Nations, the
EU, the US and NATO do if Russia uses chemical, biological or even tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
This conflict will not likely end soon and it can only be resolved through diplomatic means. Channels of communication with Moscow must stay open and the UN should appoint a respected statesperson like Angela Merkel to mediate in this crisis.
Countries like China, which are close to Russia, have a special responsibility to try to persuade Moscow to end this war.
There is certainly a basis for a diplomatic solution: Ukraine has already said it will no longer seek NATO membership and is ready to discuss security guarantees with Russia. Why hasn’t Moscow responded to this? Malta has shown its solidarity with Ukraine by taking in some refugees as well as cancer patients. This is to be applauded. Malta also claims to have a ‘special relationship’ with China – will it tell the government in Beijing to exert its influence over Moscow to stop this invasion?