Editorial: A fragile peace on Malta’s doorstep

The US-led Libya peace talks Malta hosted in recent days are an indication that Libya’s rival power centres recognise they cannot beat each other on the battlefield. That doesn’t mean Libya is becoming a normal, unified state anytime soon but it does suggest that the main power factions in Libya have reassessed their aims.

Since the civil war subsided in 2020, Libya has remained divided between Western Libya (Tripoli), controlled by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh and the UN-recognised Government of National Unity (GNU), and Eastern Libya (Benghazi), dominated by Khalifa Haftar, his family and the Libyan National Army (LNA).

Libya has evolved into an uncomfortable stasis where the ceasefire has broadly held, oil production continues, institutions remain weak and divided and national elections have still not taken place.

Haftar and Dbeibeh are now talking because they are locked in a stalemate with no end in sight. Stability built on stronger foundations would reduce the isolation of both sides internationally and open the door to much needed investment. It will benefit the Libyan people and neighbouring countries more than the notional stability enforced through terror in the final years of the Gaddafi regime, contrary to the laments of old Libya hands in Malta and beyond who saw their lucrative contracts vanish. 

From a European, and Maltese, perspective, Libya matters for four interconnected reasons.

Migration is the primary concern, with Libya one of the departure points for migrants trying to reach Europe.

The EU has spent hundreds of millions of euros supporting Libyan coastguard capabilities, border management, voluntary returns and protection programmes, with some success as numbers of people crossing were reduced. This has come at a horrific moral price, with documented, verified reports of widespread abuse of migrants in Libya (and Tunisia). 

Libya also possesses Africa’s largest proven oil reserves and significant natural gas resources right on our doorstep and is an important means to diversify supplies away from Russia.

Security and Russian influence are the remaining reasons for Libya’s strategic relevance to Europe.

In every nightmare scenario that threatens Europe’s security, Russia is seen as the main threat on its northern and eastern flanks. Yet, it is perhaps its southern flank where some of the most insidious threats Europe faces are found and Libya features prominently.

The country is a gateway to Europe not just of energy and migrants fleeing war, insecurity and economic deprivation from the Sahel and beyond, but also arms-smuggling, organised crime and terrorism. The fact that Libya is almost an afterthought in the chancelleries of Europe until a crisis happens reflects Europe’s systemic weakness, even if it has become almost a cliché to underline this point.

We should be grateful that there appears to be no appetite for renewed civil war and external powers, primarily Russia and Turkey, are themselves too weak or otherwise preoccupied to fully turn their attentions to achieving their objectives in Libya.

Libya’s clan-based society, reflected in its rival militias the existence of which further fragments the primary east – west divide of the country, is a significant obstacle to achieving a lasting peace.

Therefore, as in other African countries with significant clan, tribal or ethnic fault-lines, the best we may hope for in Libya is increased stability underpinned by defined power-sharing arrangements amongst the country’s main factions.

In the medium to the long term, however, it is almost certain that such arrangements will come under renewed strain or collapse. Libya will, despite or because of the immense resources with which it has been blessed, remain a powder keg threatening to explode a few hundred kilometres away from our borders.