Israel’s killing in Beirut of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is a reckless irresponsible act which risks an all-out regional war. Nasrallah led the Lebanese militant Shiite group for 30 years and was one of the most influential leaders not only in Lebanon but in the Middle East.
Nasrallah’s death is without doubt a major blow for Hezbollah – which has also lost nine of its most senior military commanders this year through Israeli airstrikes, mostly in the past week. Although its military and operational capabilities have been severely curtailed, Hezbollah still has thousands of fighters and large stockpiles of weapons and continues to be funded by Iran, its key ally.
How Tehran responds to Nasrallah’s killing could be a game changer in the Middle East. Iran, which has still not retaliated for Israel’s killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31 has made it clear that Nasrallah’s killing “will not go unanswered”.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to thrive on provocation. His brutal military campaign in Gaza in response to the Hamas terrorist acts of October 7 has led to the death of over 41,000 Palestinians, most of them civilians. Israel has broken international law in Gaza and its claims of acting in self-defence have long sounded hollow.
It was in response to the Gaza war that Hezbollah started to launch rockets at northern Israel, leading to a cross-border war between the two for the past year. As a result, 60,000 Israelis have fled their homes in the north.
Until last month the war was largely restricted to the border region, but this changed after thousands of Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies exploded and the Israeli defence minister said the “focus has shifted to the Lebanese front, marking a new phase in the war”.
Over the past two weeks Israel carried out airstrikes in southern Lebanon and Beirut, targeting senior Hezbollah members and weapons stockpiles. Over 1,000 Lebanese have already been killed and close to a million displaced – up to a sixth of Lebanon’s population.
Lebanon’s prime minister said his country was experiencing what could be its largest wave of displacement ever. This is clearly unacceptable.
There is also the possibility that Israel is considering a ground offensive in Lebanon to defeat Hezbollah. This would be a mistake – Israel’s past interventions in Lebanon solved nothing – indeed it was its 1982 invasion and occupation of southern Lebanon that led to the creation of Hezbollah. And a ground invasion could tempt Iran to get directly involved in the conflict.
Iran has already attacked Israel once this year – a drone and missile attack in retaliation for the bombing of Tehran’s consulate in Damascus – so that red line has already been crossed.
The situation in the Middle East remains extremely volatile and the international community must redouble its efforts to ease tensions. The US –Israel’s main supplier of weapons and aid – has a particular duty to urge Israel to restrain itself. US President Joe Biden’s comment that Nasrallah’s killing was a “measure of justice” certainly doesn’t help matters.
When Iran attacked Israel in April, the US, France, the UK, and Jordan helped down 99 per cent of Tehran’s missiles, and a number of Gulf states provided Israel with intelligence prior to these attacks. These same countries, as well as the European Union, should now be pressuring Israel to accept a ceasefire in both Lebanon and Gaza, and resume talks on settling the border dispute with Lebanon and on the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Israel needs to think hard about whether being in a permanent state of conflict is in its interest. There is still time for a diplomatic solution, but clearly time is running out.