A tumultuous 24 hours in Russia’s internal affairs saw the risk of a civil war rising dramatically in the country with what is touted to be the world’s largest arsenal of nuclear weapons.
The immediate threat of a chaotic development on Europe’s eastern border has subsided but the likely long-term consequences are now a global concern.
One positive outcome of the short-lived uprising by the private militia led by Yevgeny Prigozhin is that the reason Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 has now been discredited to a Russian audience. The Wagner Group founder questioned Moscow’s rationale for launching the invasion, saying “the Armed Forces of Ukraine were not going to attack Russia with NATO” and “that the war was needed for a bunch of scumbags to triumph and show how strong of an army they are”.
Another likely side-effect of Saturday’s hammer blow to Vladimir Putin’s image is to strengthen Ukraine’s hand in the counter-offensive. It will be seeking to take full advantage of Russia’s weakened leadership, morale and military organisation.
The Wagner rebellion, or the “march for justice”, as Prigozhin labelled it, was not inspired by the desire of a military group to see their country return to the path of civil behaviour and abandon its military aggression against its neighbour. The aborted civil war in Russia was not at all about the forces of good fighting those of evil. The risk of escalation fizzled out as a result of an alliance between rogue leaders, Putin and Byelorussian President Aleksander Lukashenko, to persuade the other criminal strongman to retreat, go into exile and disband his mercenary group.
The most severe consequence of this short, sharp development in Russia’s internal affairs is that the geopolitical instability on Europe’s borders has increased substantially. No one can reliably predict the longer-term consequences of the Wagner uprising. The Washington-based think tank Institute of the Study of War argues that the Kremlin now faces a “deeply unstable situation”. The failed rebellion and the “short-term fix” – in the form of an apparent truce with the Wagner Group – will likely “substantially damage” Putin’s government.
Political instability in Russia is not good news for the EU, which is already struggling to energise its faltering economy. The strengthening of Europe’s defence capabilities in the context of increasing geopolitical instability is now a top priority for political leaders and a drain on financial resources badly needed to stimulate economic growth.
Whatever developments occur in Russia’s chaotic leadership structure, the risks of military aggression against a European country must never be discarded. This will mean adopting war economy strategies, like manufacturing and trading in expensive armaments and ammunition. It could also mean more inward-looking trade policies on the basis of reducing dependence on unreliable global supply chains.
Western leaders waited to react to the tumultuous and bizarre development in Russian internal affairs. They may now be sighing in relief after the mysterious de-escalation and Wagner’s about-turn from its advance on Moscow. But they must acknowledge that this is by no means the end of the crisis. It is not inconceivable that
Russia’s weakened leadership could eventually be replaced by a more totalitarian regime that is even more threatening to its neighbours.
The age of detente between the East and West is over. Europe now has to deal with its existential threats with more determination. To the existing significant challenges in the areas of migration and the economy, it must now deal with escalating geopolitical instability that goes beyond the Ukraine war.