Following funeral services in Tabriz, Qom and Tehran, the late president of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, was laid to rest in the North-Eastern Iranian city of Mashhad. Though nothing is likely to change in the short run, the death of the president, together with the foreign minister and other officials in a helicopter crash, will lead to an increase in uncertainty among Iran’s establishment.

As a result of Raisi’s death, elections for the presidency will be held on June 28. These elections will occur barely four months after legislative elections, which saw a historic low turnout of 41%. In the previous presidential elections held in 2021, turnout was also at a low 49%, with the highest recorded share of invalid votes in Iranian history.

These low turnouts can be explained by the decision of the Guardian Council to disqualify some popular and more “moderate” political candidates – though such terms tend to be reductive and somewhat meaningless in the Iranian context.

The upcoming elections are likely to continue to demonstrate the widespread popular disenchantment with voting and the entire political process which, so far, has been unable to deliver much-needed economic, social and political reforms. The 2022 mass protests demonstrated the extent of this disenchantment, particularly among younger voters. Nonetheless, Raisi’s ability to quash these protests showed the ability of the established political order to assert its presence.

His death will, however, have long-term implications for the political and religious establishment of Iran. At 85 years of age, there are questions surrounding the potential succession of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. As the direct successor to Ayatollah Khomeini, Khamenei occupies the most powerful political and religious position in Iran. He also controls the armed forces, the judiciary and the influential Guardian Council, which has powers exceeding those of the Majlis (parliament).

The 63-year-old Raisi was seen as a potential successor to Khamenei, and experts believe that the clerical establishment of Iran was grooming him to take over this position when the time came. In this regard, Iran faces an unofficial succession crisis regarding who should occupy the highest position in the land.

In the short term, little is expected to change in Iran’s global posturing.

Given the concentration of power in the hands of the supreme leader, there is little hope for change in how Iran interacts in the region and globally.

Though relations with Saudi Arabia have been normalised thanks to Raisi’s efforts, relations with Israel have worsened to the point where both countries seem, at times, more than ever before, to be on the brink of war.

Moreover, the Iranian economy remains negatively affected by US-imposed sanctions. Nonetheless, experts have opined that even the lifting of sanctions would not be enough to ensure a quick economic recovery due to the “chronic mismanagement” and “rampant inefficiencies” plaguing the Iranian economy.

Iran is likely to continue prioritising ideological agendas over any other agendas. In this regard, there seems to be little hope of change. All eyes will be on Iranian youths and how they will react to the challenges ahead.

While protests were ruthlessly crushed, youths may have one final card to play – the electoral card.

Though Khamenei is likely to extend the ban on “moderates” contesting elections, a low voter turnout may continue to pressure the legitimacy of governing institutions. This, rather than any external power, is likely to seal the fate of the regime’s future.