French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for early legislative elections was a gamble which has had mixed results.
Last Sunday’s second round of voting did not result in the far right gaining power – the much-feared far-right Rassemblement National (RN) neither managed to obtain an absolute majority of seats nor did it even come close to doing so, ending up in third place. This is good news for France and for Europe.
Nonetheless, the largest coalition – the left-wing New Popular Front (NPF) – will not necessarily provide stability. It refused to name a leading candidate, preferring a more collective leadership style. Moreover, it is not devoid of unsavoury characters.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of far-left La France Insoumise, a key part of the NPF coalition, has already been making noises about wanting to be prime minister while claiming he will not impose himself. Mélenchon is joined in this would-be left-wing coalition by other parties, including the Communists, Socialists and Greens. Nonetheless, though coming first with 182 seats, the NPF will struggle to govern as it does not enjoy an absolute majority of seats.
Incumbent prime minister Gabriel Attal has resigned, although President Macron asked him to stay on temporarily. A leading figure of Macron’s centrist formation, Attal’s presence is meant to guarantee some form of stability. Nonetheless, with 168 seats for the centrists, this is likely to be a temporary measure.
Once favoured to win comfortably, Rassemblement National emerged in third place with 143 seats.
To be sure, it still obtained the highest number of votes, thus indicating that the party did manage to fire the public imagination with its platform on the cost of living, immigration and public services. Nonetheless, much of its predicted majority was undone by tactical voting among leftists and centrists, who pulled out more than 200 candidates to avoid splitting the anti-RN vote.
All three blocks fall short of the 289-seat majority needed for a viable administration and President Macron now finds himself in a difficult position with few viable options.
A German-style ‘grand coalition’ has already been ruled out by Mélenchon and others within the NPF camp. And Macron has also ruled out an alliance with Mélenchon, whose party obtained 74 MPs within the left-wing bloc. The centre-right Républicains have also ruled out entering negotiations to form “unnatural majorities”.
The most logical scenario would be for Macron to appoint a prime minister from the ranks of the NPF, preferably a moderate social democrat who could form a government together with Macron’s centrists. It is not the first time the president has to ‘cohabit’ with the prime minister of another political faction but it would be the first time that France would be governed by an actual coalition.
France is not used to coalition governments but there is no reason why, like other European countries, a coalition government would not be successful if there is an element of goodwill all around. Like their continental counterparts, France’s political parties will simply have to learn to compromise in the national interest.
The prospect of a minority government also remains on the cards – Attal and his predecessor, Elizabeth Borne, had a relative majority rather than an absolute majority in the legislature.
The NPF or any other political faction can choose to govern in a minority, though this would place the government under the threat of a vote of confidence.
France, a crucial player on the world and European stage, is entering a period of uncertainty; the sooner a stable viable government is formed the better.