A few days ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky concluded his second whirlwind tour of Europe since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, followed by a limelight-stealing appearance at the G7 summit in Hiroshima. This foreign tour was to anticipate a forthcoming counteroffensive. Going against all military stratagems, there is an expectation that a counter-offensive is imminent but where and how remains in the air.
Zelensky’s trip was aimed at gaining more material support for this counter offensive. He flew back to Kyiv with a promised arsenal which includes attack drones, tanks and missiles. France has pledged light tanks, armoured vehicles and air defence systems. Germany pledged €2.7 billion in equipment and ammunition. The UK has also committed to help train Ukrainian fighter pilots.
Zelensky remains confident and relentless in his defence of Ukraine. He continues to press ahead and seeks to reconquer the territory that Russia has seized. However, he knows that the longer the war takes, the greater the risk of alienation from world leaders. He is aware that Ukraine would likely suffer from indifference from the international community.
The Ukrainian president was feted in every capital he visited. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak described Zelensky’s “leadership” and Ukrainian “bravery and fortitude” as inspiring. Italian premier Giorgia Meloni called Zelensky a “friend” and assured him that “we cannot call ‘peace’ something that could resemble an invasion”.
On a symbolic level, the optics are clear his European trip was a resounding success. However, Zelensky needs to secure a more concrete victory. The success of any counteroffensive is critical.
The longer the war takes, the greater the chance allies question their support’s sustainability. Zelensky may have secured weapons for a counter-offensive but how will this work out in the long run? Failure to register any success in the long term will lead to more significant pressure for Zelensky to negotiate.
The Kremlin is also likely to continue flexing its muscles given the aid provided to Ukraine. A statement in the wake of recent pledges downplayed the role of these weapons in changing the outcome of the war, though such assistance was viewed “extremely negatively”.
Most importantly, however, the war in Ukraine requires greater nuance – a more comprehensive perspective beyond the military and security debates. Pope Francis provided some of this. During his meeting with Zelensky, he called for “gestures of humanity”, particularly towards the innocent victims of the conflict. The pope prayed for the “martyred Ukrainian people” and the Russian mothers who lost their sons during the war.
As is standard practice, the Holy See remained neutral. This, however, prompted Zelensky to tweet that “there can be no equality between the victim and the aggressor”.
Zelensky’s return to Kyiv may not have been as triumphant as the optics suggested.
On the one hand, he secured most of the weapons he required and a pledge on the future supply of fighter jets, also ensuring that the war remained visible and understood as a European conflict with consequences for the entire continent.
Yet, he now faces three complex challenges. The first involves the deployment of the weapons he has secured. The military success of the counteroffensive will be crucial if he is to continue to get the aid he needs to bring the war to a favourable conclusion. The second challenge involves a political solution.
The military invasion has political consequences and reaching an eventual “just peace” will test the political fray.
Finally, the longer the war takes, the greater the cost of human lives and the displacement of people. In this regard, it is sad to see that the humanitarian tragedy remains largely unaddressed.