Speculation has been mounting that Robert Abela will call an early general election imminently, with the prime minister juggling between favourable opinion polls, potential political strife and a pandemic.

Political observers say the relatively low COVID-19 numbers and potential political problems in early 2022 could push the prime minister to hold a snap late November or early December poll.

But sources also say Abela has been under intense pressure from the business community to desist from going to the polls during a sensitive period for shopping, and stick out his full term.

The prime minister can wait until November 1 to announce a general election in 2021. That would allow for an election to be held on December 4, deemed by political strategists to be the last possible date to head to the polls before the mistletoe is hung for the holidays – off-season for politics.

The prime minister can wait until November 1 to announce a general election in 2021.

The law stipulates a minimum of 33 days between the dissolution of parliament and election day.

The two possible dates being touted by Labour insiders are either November 27 or December 4. However, Abela is holding his cards close to his chest on the matter, with only close advisers briefed on his plans.

A few weeks ago, he presented allies with three different options: a snap election before the New Year, a March election, or another close to the end of the legislature in June.

Will he or won’t he?

Reasons to hold an election now

Abela may think the iron is hot to strike as his party enjoys a strong lead in the polls.

In July, a survey commissioned by Times of Malta indicated Abela’s Labour could be heading for a record landslide victory with a gap of more than 50,000 votes, though support dwindled in the subsequent survey. Other more recent polls have PL cruising to another landslide win.

Relatively low COVID-19 cases means it is logistically possible to hold a general election now. Times of Malta is informed that Abela and Malta’s health authorities have already discussed the possibility of holding an election before the New Year.

The prime minister will likely also feel buoyed by the feel-good factor of this month’s Budget, which promises to cut the deficit without introducing any new taxes.

Discussions on a nationwide metro project were also launched earlier this month, the sort of mega-announcement normally saved for election season. Malta is also yet to feel the possible economic ramifications of being placed on the FATF grey list of untrustworthy financial jurisdictions.

International studies have suggested that greylisting can significantly impact a country’s ability to do business, and a recent survey has suggested investors see the island as less attractive since it was added to the list.

Labour supporters celebrating the 2017 victory.

Reasons not to hold an election yet

Abela will certainly be concerned about a possible resurgence in COVID-19 cases, especially as we edge closer to flu season. In a worst-case scenario, a sudden outbreak in virus cases could lead health authorities to introduce new restrictions and could see voters shy away from the polls.

Winter elections are generally not favoured by prime ministers, who are said to fear the possibility of heavy rains on polling day that could keep voters away.

During the 2008 general election, voting was extended by another hour to boost turnout figures once a storm had passed. Sources said the prime minister and other members of Labour’s leadership have also been under huge pressure from the business community, who say that a November or December election would disrupt the much-needed Black Friday and early Christmas shopping sprees.

Black Friday, which sees retailers cut their prices to encourage shoppers, has caught on significantly in Malta in the last few years. But in the last two, its success was hindered by the pandemic and 2019’s political instability. This year, Black Friday will fall on November 26, a day before a potential general election.

The gathering of large crowds is unlikely in the coming campaign.

Sources close to Abela have also spoken of “unknown variables” that could be weighing on his mind. “Prime ministers have visibility on matters that most others do not, be they security briefings or simply discussions with entities both in Malta and abroad,” a source close to Abela said. Such unknown variables could be a breakthrough in a high-profile police investigation, or a looming political scandal.

Abela could also be looking to potentially positive developments that he thinks are set for 2022 and could improve his chances at the polls.

A pontiff put off by the election?

One indication that an election could be brewing is Pope Francis’s postponement of his visit to Malta in December.

Waiting in the wings: Pope Francis. Photo: AFP

Times of Malta reported how the visit had been pushed back, with sources saying the pope could not visit a country in the lead-up or aftermath of a general election.

Sources close to the discussion with Pope Francis said that there could be no papal visit either three weeks before an election or even three weeks after.

A visit by the head of the Church would soak up considerable police and army resources for at least a week in advance.