Enlargement still hangs on Irish vote

Securing a 'yes' vote in the upcoming Irish referendum to ratify the Nice Treaty was going to be "one tough job", Nationalist MP Michael Frendo admitted to The Sunday Times, a day after returning from Ireland.

The prospect of enlargement still hangs in the balance, and the hopes of ten candidate countries could be dashed should the Irish reject the ratification of the Nice treaty in a second referendum on October 19.

The treaty includes institutional and decision-making reforms that represent a legal basis for EU enlargement.

Dr Frendo, who is also one of Parliament's representatives at the Convention for the Future of Europe, was invited to address a public meeting by the Yes for Nice Referendum group in Dublin on Thursday.

He said that government support had slumped in the space of a week and this did not augur well since there seemed to be a strong correlation between dissatisfaction with the government and opposition to the Nice Treaty.

The first blow was when the 'yes' campaign director was forced to resign after being named in a damning judicial report into corrupt payments to politicians.

The other issue was an internal memo circulated by the Opposition which showed that the government was aware of the state of the economy.

These issues, Dr Frendo said, sadly dealt a blow to the 'yes' vote.

According to an Irish Times/ MRBI opinion poll issued on Friday, the fate of the Nice Treaty remains uncertain.

Satisfaction with the government has plunged by 25 percentage points since May to just 36 per cent, while Prime Minister Bertie Ahern's personal rating has fallen by 19 points to 51 per cent.

Meanwhile, the fact that those dissatisfied with the coalition government are much more likely to vote 'no' will further worry the 'yes' campaign, the poll said.

The poll shows that 37 per cent of voters intend to vote for the Nice Treaty; 25 per cent will vote against; 32 per cent do not know how they will vote; and seven per cent say they will not vote.

This is a narrower margin of support than was shown in a poll just days before the last referendum.

Irish voters rejected the Nice Treaty in a June 2001 referendum with 54 per cent of the vote. Just 34.8 per cent of the electorate voted on that occasion.

A few days ago, the Ministers for European Affairs of the ten candidate countries expected to join the EU in 2004, including Malta, expressed hope that the Irish voters will endorse the Nice Treaty in order not to derail the enlargement process.

Dr Frendo said that a strong campaign was needed in Ireland to convince people to vote "yes" in the referendum. On a positive note, he said that several unions and farmers had now declared themselves in favour of a 'yes' vote after realising the benefits of the treaty.

Officially, no alternative plan exists to go ahead with EU enlargement if the Irish voters reject the Nice Treaty again.

Nevertheless, Dr Frendo said EU officials admitted there were ways of circumventing a potential rejection, though this could trigger off legal complications.