Most investors have probably had an overdose of articles hitting their screens explaining the dismal performance of equity markets over recent weeks. However, when deciding about the topic for this week’s article, I thought it would still be important to try to provide a brief overview of the more important events that led to the fastest bear market in history.
International equity markets had a positive start to the New Year continuing on their bull market phase which had started in March 2009. In fact, US equities rallied strongly in the first half of January with the S&P 500 hitting a new record high in the middle of the month after the US and China signed the first phase of a trade deal. In the second half of January, however, mounting fears over the spread of the coronavirus in China and beyond erased the gains with the main indices in the US ending the month flat.
The S&P 500 Index touched a fresh record high in early February following robust economic data and US President Donald Trump’s acquittal in the final impeachment vote. However, as many of the world’s biggest economies went into lockdown as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak, investor confidence was shattered and the S&P 500 index in the US suffered its quickest fall into a bear market on record. The index took just 16 days to slump from all-time highs to bear- market territory (a drop of 20 per cent) easily surpassing the previous record of the quickest fall into a bear market set in 1929 at 44 days. The S&P 500 index ended the quarter with a decline of 20 per cent – the weakest quarter since the financial crisis.
Apart from the concerns regarding the spread of COVID-19, another determining factor was the sharp decline in the oil price to its lowest level in 18 years. Oil was impacted by the dual shock of the largest drop in demand in history as the coronavirus cut consumption and a surge in supply following the start of a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Volatility across most equity markets was very high in the latter part of the quarter. However, as governments and central banks put together significant packages to offset some of the large negative economic effects of the virus, investor sentiment improved and equity markets recovered from their lows. In fact, US equities advanced by almost 18 per cent from their lowest levels of the year on March 23. Despite the recovery, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 23.2 per cent throughout Q1 – its steepest first quarter decline on record.
Recessions are the best times for long-term investors as markets tend to overreact, bringing about good opportunities
The US House of Representatives approved a $2.2 trillion stimulus bill which was signed into law by President Donald Trump. The Federal Reserve cut US interest rates to close to zero and later unveiled a variety of programmes to combat the coronavirus impact. For the first time ever, the Fed also intervened in the corporate bond market through the secondary market corporate-credit facility which essentially is a mechanism for the purchase in the secondary market of corporate bonds issued by investment grade US companies and US-listed exchange-traded funds whose investment objective is to provide a broad exposure to the market for US investment-grade corporate bonds.
In Europe, the European Central Bank continued to ramp up its response with President Christine Lagarde stating that there are “no limits” to its commitment to the euro. The pan-European STOXX 600 index registered its worst quarter since 2002 with a decline of 23 per cent. The worst performing markets were Italy and Spain as both countries suffered the highest number of deaths from the pandemic. In the UK, the FTSE 100 dropped by almost 25 per cent – its worst quarter since the 1980s.
In Malta, 16 equities suffered double digit declines with International Hotel Investments plc ranking as the weakest performer with a drop of just over 35 per cent. The benchmark MSE Equity Price Index ended the quarter with a decline of just under 20 per cent. The share price of Malta International Airport plc dropped by 28 per cent in Q1 after it had registered a drop of just over 49 per cent before staging a remarkable recovery from the low of €3.50 on March 23.
In the quarterly market reviews published in the past, I generally concluded by giving a brief outlook on expected developments. This time, it is naturally too hard to do the same given the uncertainty on when some form of normality returns. The second quarter of the year is generally an exciting time for the Maltese investing public as the annual reporting season reaches a climax with companies publishing their financial statements and most declaring dividends. Moreover, it is also a time when annual general meetings take place, giving investors an opportunity to gain a deeper understanding on a company’s business strategy. Unfortunately, this year’s annual reporting season is overshadowed by the ongoing COVID-19 impact and irrespective of the successful financial performance of several companies in 2019, the focus is on how the pandemic is affecting a company’s current performance and near-term outlook.
Similar to developments overseas, many companies are postponing their dividends in order to retain as much cash as possible given the uncertainties on when certain business lines can resume. AGMs have also been postponed due to restrictions by health authorities. For the first time ever, some Maltese companies may need to resort to organising their annual shareholder meetings remotely.
Many people are understandably anxious about the impact of COVID-19 on their daily lives. The dismal performance of equity markets, the uncertainty being created by the challenging times and the postponement of dividend payments – important sources of income for many investors – adds to the overall level of anxiety. It is therefore natural this leads to panic selling at times. However, while listening in to a conference call recently organised by an experienced international fund manager, it was argued that recessions are the best times for long-term investors as markets tend to overreact, bringing about good opportunities.
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