Estonia

Our journey across the new member states takes us to Estonia, a small state of around 1.3 million people. In territorial size, Estonia is 140 times the size of Malta. The population in its capital Talinn is roughly the size of Malta.

On April 2, just one month before joining the EU, Estonia will also join NATO. It will do so in the company of a number of other states namely Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia.

Can Estonia be blamed for taking such precautions? A quick glance at its history will confirm why. Before World War I it was just a province of Tsarist Russia. Between World War I and II, it led an independent existence. In 1940, the Soviets overran it and Estonia only managed to rid itself of the Soviet yoke in 1990.

When communism began to crumble and the Soviet Union started to come apart, Estonia first declared itself an occupied country and then in 1991 it proclaimed itself an independent state.

Russia recognised Estonia's independence a year later and by 1994 the last Soviet troops had left the country. Estonia began thus to steer a steadier course towards the EU and NATO.

Given its past history under Russian rule, Estonia which shares a border with Russia, has every right to feel threatened. The problem is compounded by the fact that in common with the other Baltic states of Lithuania and Latvia, Estonia has a sizeable Russian minority - around 28 per cent of the total population.

The Russian minority

The Russian minority is large enough to cause a lot of mischief to Estonia by weakening it internally and by provoking some kind of Russian intervention in its internal affairs.

A Russian minority already existed in Estonia before it was annexed by the Soviet Union in 1940. But during the Soviet era this minority grew bigger. The Soviet annexation of Estonia together with Latvia and Lithuania is a shameful story that cannot be passed over in silence.

In 1939, Stalin and Hitler concluded the non-aggression pact according to which Russia was to help herself to the three Baltic states. Russian forces subsequently helped to rig elections in the three countries to enable pro-Soviet governments to take power. These in turn quickly requested to have their countries incorporated in the Soviet Union.

During a visit to Talinn, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Vladimir Chizov said that there were still serious problems troubling relations with Estonia and these were connected with the treatment of the Russian-speaking minority in Estonia.

Mr Chizov also stated that Moscow intended to continue to maintain a close interest in the Estonian, Russian-speaking minority for many years to come. Presumably until all concerns about this minority have been allayed.

Small wonder then that Estonia and the other Baltic states enter the EU carrying a lot of historic baggage and quite a few bad memories of mistreatment at the hands of the Russians as well.

Of course Estonia has a list of concerns of its own on which it expects the Russians to act. These are mainly related to organised crime, drug trafficking and control of the borders with Russia.

Strengthen EU-Russia relations

That is why Estonia is so keen to ensure that the EU's strategy towards Russia is successful. A stable Russia is less likely to cause Talinn severe headaches. But a turbulent, unsettled Russia could pose a serious threat once again.

At the last General Affairs Council of the European Union (meeting of the foreign ministers of the EU member states and new members), Estonian Foreign Minister Kriistina Ojuland stressed that good relations between the EU and Russia are important for her country.

She stated further that Estonia's aim is to co-operate with the other member states in an effort to strengthen strategic EU-Russia relations which should be based on equal rights and obligations, common interests and values, mutual trust and open dialogue in the framework of the EU-Russia Partnership and co-operation agreement.

Estonia urged the EU to extend the agreement it has with Russia to all the new member states - immediately and unconditionally.

The problem with Estonia's proposal is that the EU is a bit wary of developments in Russia, where President Putin has been strengthening his grip on the levers of power raising serious doubts that the democratic gains achieved so far may yet be reversed.

The EU does not seem to be in a hurry to improve its co-operation agreement with Russia before the latter gives firmer indications that it is not seeking to undermine its democratic reforms.

Estonia wishes the EU to speak with one voice on its policy towards Russia. And even in this case one can easily understand the reasons for this given the clattering debacle produced at the last EU-Russia summit held during Italy's turn at the EU Presidency when Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi managed to put his big foot right into it.

Mindful of the fact that instability in the EU-Russia Partnership could have adverse economic and political effects on it, and equally conscious of the fact that it cannot take on mighty Russia alone, Talinn is keen to get the whole of the EU involved in dealing with Russia.

But Estonia does not intend to deal with Russia solely from within the protective barrier offered by the EU. It wants bi-lateral discussions and dialogue to continue as well side by side with those within the ambit of EU-Russia.

Enhancing security

Estonia's membership of the EU and NATO within one month of each other will enhance the country's security. But while waiting for these to happen, Estonia has not been sitting down with her hands on her hips.

For example, although its armed forces are small by any comparison, Estonia has spared some of them to participate in peacekeeping missions in Kosovo, Bosnia-Herzegovina and the Middle East. It has deployed a small team in Kabul and about 45 military personnel are operating in Iraq.

Estonia's behaviour illustrates the small state's security dilemma. With a big and restless power on its borders and facing a host of non-military threats from organised crime, drug trafficking and the like, Estonia has preferred a cocktail of policies to deal with the different kind and levels of threat.

With EU membership it wants to multiply the opportunities that will hopefully continue to promote its economic development. It wishes to use its membership in order to promote a stronger European response towards Russia. It is in her interest to do this. From a stable Russia less threats are likely to emanate.

Yet Talinn is not satisfied with acting through the EU. It wishes to maintain a strong bilateral dialogue with Moscow. That is a good step no doubt. Meanwhile, NATO membership gives Estonia its security insurance - to be invoked only if the worse comes to the worse.

The economy

Estonia's economy is progressing steadily and the welfare of its people appears to be improving steadily if this is measured by Gross Domestic product (GDP) per head in Purchasing Power Standards (PPS).

But Estonia's GDP per head in PPS is only 40% that of the EU average. This means that it has still a long way to go before it can catch up with the rest of the EU states.

Unemployment at 9.1% in 2002 is high. Inflation is around 2%. A stroll through the figures of the Estonia economy will reveal that generally speaking the country is moving forward but there are still some worrying aspects that require urgent attention such as the deteriorating current account deficit.

Reforms of the social welfare structure, particularly pensions and heath care, are continuing briskly. Public finances are still very strong and these strengthen Estonia's resilience and its ability to deal with economic shocks.