Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine goes beyond the Russian-Ukrainian war. We are witnessing a war between democracy and authoritarianism playing out on Ukrainian land.
However, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its fourth month, Western leaders are expressing fears that “war fatigue” could fray the West’s determination to keep supporting Ukraine. The Kremlin could exploit this situation to its advantage.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently dismissed suggestions by French President Emmanuel Macron that world powers should not “humiliate Russia, so when the fighting stops, we can build a way out together via diplomatic paths” and by former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger who suggested that Ukraine should consider “territorial concessions”.
Zelensky’s position is understandable. It is his country that is being bombed and his people that are being massacred. The atrocities committed by Russia in Ukraine mark a horrifying breach of international law. The Ukrainian economy declined 16 per cent in the first quarter of 2022 compared to last year’s first quarter and it could be down by 40 per cent by the end of the year.
However, sanctions imposed by the US and the EU on Russia seem, at least for now, to have had no effect on the Kremlin’s resolve to continue with its illegal aggression. Western leaders were hoping that sanctions imposed on Russia will pressure the Kremlin to change course. This objective has, so far, not been achieved.
When embargoes were imposed on Iraq in the 1990s, these failed to topple Saddam Hussein, despite the huge economic difficulties they caused to the Iraqi people.
Dictators are rarely responsive to public opinion. Sanctions were eventually shifted towards the ruling elite.
The West’s sanctions on Russia are instead biting back on those who imposed them, causing hardships among millions of consumers worldwide. Inflation is up and so is unemployment. Millions of people across Europe and beyond are suffering as energy and food prices soar.
People are horrified by images of death and displacement of Ukrainian civilians; however, they are also concerned about their diminishing standard of living and with having to absorb a huge flow of Ukrainian refugees who have no other option but to leave their war-shattered country and seek shelter in other European capitals.
Unless the economic pain is tackled, Western support for Ukraine will wear out- Frank Psaila
European leaders encourage EU citizens not to give up, stating, and rightly so, that the Kremlin shouldn’t be appeased and that Ukraine must win this war. Yet, as the war drags on, EU citizens are getting jittery. There are now hints of tensions among Western leaders on what the West’s goals should be. While rich countries, such as Germany, have the resources to cope in the event of a severe recession, others, especially Eastern European and Southern European countries, do not.
The threat to democracy posed by the Kremlin and its authoritarianism must be tackled head on. Supporting Ukraine is the right, moral thing to do. Despite the war fatigue that is setting in, Western powers cannot return to business as usual. However, unless the economic pain is tackled, Western support for Ukraine will wear out.
Inflation is a major concern for all. Financial aid and capping the price of Russian gas are among the suggestions made at the latest EU leaders’ summit. Contingency plans are also in the pipeline if the gas supply from Russia grinds to a halt.
The stakes for Western leaders are enormous. Unfortunately, there are no clear-cut solutions.
Frank Psaila is a lawyer specialising in international relations.