Europe could determine fate of Tony Blair

Europe looms as the biggest challenge to Britain's newly re-elected Tony Blair even as he talks of putting Africa and climate change at the centre of his foreign policy agenda.

A top priority will be to start convincing Britons to vote for the EU's future Constitution in a referendum pencilled in for 2006. Defeat threatens to end his career.

Mr Blair, desperate to draw a line under the Iraq war which dominated his second term and cost him votes in Thursday's election, is keen to turn to new foreign challenges.

"I know Iraq has been a deeply divisive issue in this country. That has been very, very clear," a chastened Mr Blair said after his centre-left Labour party retained power but saw its majority in Parliament more than halved.

He hopes less controversial issues, which he aims to advance in July when Britain chairs the G8 group of industrialised nations summit, will help rebuild his standing at home and abroad.

"There are many other issues that concern people in the international agenda. We will focus on those. On poverty in Africa, on climate change, on making progress in Israel and Palestine," he said.

But Europe, which barely featured in the election campaign, will dominate at least the first year of Mr Blair's third term.

He faces an uphill battle to win the referendum with polls showing traditionally eurosceptic Britons are two-to-one against the treaty which sets out how the 25-member bloc will function.

"If we were to lose, the consequences would not just be for Britain's place in Europe but there'd be immense consequences for a Labour government that recommended a 'Yes' vote," said former Labour foreign minister Robin Cook.

In a sign of how seriously he takes the referendum battle, Mr Blair has upgraded the Europe minister job.

Douglas Alexander, 37, replaces Denis MacShane in the role some see as a poisoned chalice. He will attend cabinet meetings alongside reappointed Foreign Minister Jack Straw.

But Mr Blair's fate may lie in French hands. If France votes "No" in its May 29 referendum, which could effectively kill off the treaty, Mr Blair is off the hook.

British officials say a lot depends on French President Jacques Chirac's reaction if France voted "No". They say he may declare the treaty dead in which case there would be nothing for Britons to vote on, especially if Dutch voters also rejected it three days later.