Europe is not swinging to the right

I would like to add some remarks to Mr Ranier Fsadni's contribution with regard to German affairs (June 20). As he correctly points out, opinion polls, which are held regularly in Germany, lead observers of the political scene to think that the CDU/CSU alliance is set to beat the present red-green coalition in the coming elections to be held on September 22.

Previous and current opinion polls, however, have the CDU/CSU alliance on a level below 50 per cent. The CDU/CSU alliance will therefore need a coalition partner in order to be able to assume government.

It is probable that the CDU/CSU alliance will look towards the Liberal Party (FDP) as a coalition partner and this would brake, within limits, a swing to the right.

The Liberal Party in Germany at the moment has internal problems because of policy opinions adopted and practised by Jürgen Möllemann, who leads the Liberals in the state of North Rhine Westphalia and who is one of the deputy leaders of the federal FDP. Möllemann is at the moment at loggerheads with Jewish leaders in post-war Germany and his behaviour has brought him in the virtual vicinity of Jörg Haider in Austria.

It is therefore now somewhat uncertain how the FDP will fare in the coming federal election.

As Mr Fsadni writes, Edmund Stoiber, the chancellor candidate presented by the CDU/CSU alliance, has a well-known record of economic interventionism, which has often not really been EU compliant. Bavaria, ruled by its Prime Minister Edmund Stoiber, just loves arguing with Brussels.

Mr Fsadni correctly adds that the CDU/CSU alliance is promising further tax reforms to the ones already implemented by the present red-green coalition led by Chancellor Schröder.

The problem for us in Germany is to guess where the revenue, required to finance the electoral promises made by the CDU/CSU and the Liberals, is going to come from. This year, Germany was close to receiving a stern warning in writing from Brussels because national debt and budget were in danger of deviating from the criteria dictated by the Maastricht Convention. Funnily enough, these economic criteria had been adopted on German insistence (Helmut Kohl and Theo Waigel).

Mr Fsadni furthermore correctly adds that, although the CDU/CSU alliance is ahead of the SPD/Greens coalition in the polls, the majority of Germans would prefer to have Schröder rather than Stoiber as their chancellor. It should moreover be interesting to note that the most popular politician in Germany is Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, who comes from the Greens.

I agree with Mr Fsadni that a reluctant electorate suggests a general lack of confidence in politicians. Many German political correspondents believe that this is the status quo in Germany.

With regard to an improbable political swing to the right, so far as Germany could be concerned, there are two other possible outcomes of the federal election coming up in September. We could have a minority red-green government tolerated by the post communists. Many even fear that a red-red-green coalition could be possible. We could also have a red-black grand coalition formed by the two major parties. Prime Minister Stolpe (SPD) from the state of Brandenburg has publicly voiced such an opinion. CDU star-politician Wolfgang Schäuble and even Chancellor Schröder are believed to secretly cherish such an idea.