Fancying membership and independence

Dr Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici's move from the Campaign for National Independence (CNI) to Front Maltin Inqumu (FMI), founded by his predecessor as Prime Minister and MLP leader, Dom Mintoff, must be studied carefully. When two old Labour heavyweights join forces, there must be more than just nostalgic ties in between.

The main aim of FMI is to take the European Union membership negotiation package to task. It will try to prove that Malta has not made the best possible deal. However on a close inspection, one must state that this is what the Labour Party has been doing, especially under the skilful scrutiny of its deputy leader and foreign affairs spokesman, Dr George Vella.

But there is still a big difference. While the Labour Party has tackled the package reached in such a way as to insist that EU membership should not be the option for Malta, FMI wants to give the impression that it would not have excluded membership had Malta obtained the right package.

At the present stage however the FMI's position cannot be taken as one of support for EU membership. The opposite is the case. By the time FMI would be unfolding its campaign the deal would have been sealed and any attempt to revise the package would be tantamount to refusing membership altogether.

More than a comeback

The clear message of FMI would be that the Maltese side got a very bad deal and that the core negotiating group had "sold" Malta cheaply. It implies that had Malta received a better package, membership could have been considered.

This message presents the platform for a brief comeback by Dom Mintoff on the political scene. It is his last effort to lend a helping hand to Labour without having to shake hands with Dr Sant. This helping hand could also be interpreted as the last attempt by the 86-year-old former leader to shake his fist at Dr Sant without hitting him directly.

It seems that Dr Sant has outmanoeuvred himself by his partnership option in that he cannot exactly get his message through. If he expresses himself in a clear way on partnership, he could provoke some negative answers from Europe and he would be exposing his version to attacks on the local front.

Mr Mintoff's stand makes much more sense. It is limiting itself to the items in the package that he does not want. It is signalling to Labour supporters who favour membership that FMI is not excluding it. It is trying to belittle the government's achievements and create a strong position for a 'no' vote in the referendum, stronger than that of CNI. Dr Mifsud Bonnici has already figured this out.

Whereas CNI would address the Labour supporters and others that are not convinced of EU membership, FMI would address all Maltese, but particularly Labour voters who tend to support membership. FMI would try to persuade them and all the spectrum of old Mintoffians that voting yes would be accepting a bad deal.

Icon revitalised

Mr Mintoff has nothing to lose and much to gain. The old leader is once more appealing to the hearts of all Labour supporters. He is imparting the message that he would not leave the party down in this late difficult hour.

He is entering the arena for both eventualities, i.e. both in case Labour regains power and in case the MLP fails to do so. Had Labour triumphed without Mintoff in 1998, the Labour icon would have suffered another blow. In fact he contributed to his party's fall from power four years ago, since he clearly demonstrated that the loss of his support was devastating for Dr Sant and his team.

So Labour's re-election without Mintoff's support, would be a clear indication that Labour has emancipated itself from him and that the party does not need him any more. FMI however, would show that Mr Mintoff is indispensable to Labour.

An eventual Labour victory with FMI's support would not only allow Mr Mintoff to point at his own contribution. Firstly he would convincingly maintain that party supporters and those who deserted it in 1998 would have found his stand to be clearer.

Secondly he would put pressure on Dr Sant to go for membership on better terms for Malta than just refuse membership. The present MLP leader would probably not heed these pressures and send the old man home again. But such a refusal would not reflect well on Dr Sant. Mr Mintoff would remain a persona non grata for Dr Sant alone, but certainly not for the MLP and for the country as a whole.

Mr Mintoff would probably survive the days where the partnership option may begin to falter and many would start admiring the old Labour icon anew. He would not have the power to rock the boat once more but he would be admired for his skilful boarding of it on his own terms.

On the other hand, Mr Mintoff would also be creating a solid basis to attack Dr Sant's position if Labour fails to regain power in the next general election. He would blame Dr Sant for a vague and short-sighted vision from the very outset and for having lost valuable time excluding membership altogether. A Labour defeat would thus give Dom Mintoff a last say as to the MLP's future leadership. In any case he is creating for himself a win-win situation.

Good Uncle Karmenu

Dr Mifsud Bonnici's role should also be admired. He is the perfect godfather of the party. He knows that it would fare better with some support of the old charismatic leader. He knows that it would have been a disaster for the history of the party to lose Mintoff forever. This loss would have created an identity vacuum within the party.

In one of my articles, titled "Wider dialogue", I drew the attention of the pro-membership group that it needs to have credible godfathers at its forefront. At the moment the pro-membership lobby is made up of mainly young activists. Strong personalities with an outstanding political career are missing.

With the launching of MFI, the anti-membership lobbies have closed ranks and they stand up to be counted. The referendum is not going to be a walkover for the government. Labour would be there with all its strength. I do not think that Dr Sant would opt for a boycott either, since this could easily be interpreted as leaving the field clear to Mr Mintoff, something which would be very dangerous for Dr Sant to do.

With every day that Dr Sant leaves the boycott option open, he would be giving FMI, with Mr Mintoff, more time to establish itself.

And if FMI gathers momentum, Mr Mintoff would be the perfect attraction to launch more than this concert. He has still the strength to organise a whole fireworks display. But it seems that Dr Mifsud Bonnici is trusting his own abilities to keep the orchestra together and have the soloists play their part without clashes.

With the return of Dom Mintoff, the whole political scene would get a touch of colour. Up to now it was all a sterile campaign left in the hands of the so-called professionals, who are incapable of gaining even one vote for the membership cause.

When is the Nationalist Party going to introduce some strategic thinking and more emotion in the campaign? Elections are won through hearts and not through minds.